Should Vikings start Ty Chandler over Alexander Mattison? The pros outweigh the cons

Mattison is a superior pass blocker but should that keep Chandler off the field so much?

Fresh off a concussion seven days earlier, the Minnesota Vikings elected to make Alexander Mattison the No. 1 running back for Sunday night's game against the Broncos, but after Mattison's latest costly fumble, is it time to make Ty Chandler the starter?

Chandler had 10 carries for 73 yards and caught four passes for 37 yards against Denver, while Mattison had 18 totes for 81 yards and the lost fumble that ended a potential scoring drive when Minnesota was leading 17-9 in the third quarter. 

Before the fumble, Mattison was averaging 5.8 yards per carry and had 82 yards on 14 carries. His final four carries totaled 5 yards and the fumble. Chandler, meanwhile, averaged 6.0 yards per carry (7 carries for 42 yards) before his 31-yard burst on a fake punt boosted his totals for the game. 

Mattison's carry-by-carry results: 

1. 7 yards
2. 15 yards
3. 1 yard
4. 5 yards
5. 3 yards
6. 15 yards
7. 8 yards
8. -2 yards
9. 2 yards
10. 3 yards
11. 9 yards
12. 7 yards
13. 7 yards
14. 2 yards
15. -1 yards (fumble)
16. 5 yards
17. 1 yard
18. 0 yards

Ty Chandler's carry-by-carry results: 

1. 6 yards
2. 7 yards
3. 7 yards
4. 2 yards
5. 6 yards
6. 2 yards
7. 5 yards
8. 7 yards
9. 31 yards (fake punt)
10. 0 yards

"He made plays all night," Josh Dobbs said Sunday night. "It seems like when we get the ball in Ty Chandler’s hands, good things happen."

Chandler has done almost everything needed to earn more playing time. He's catching passes out of the backfield and running with speed and power while holding onto the football. His numbers this season would be more impressive than 33 carries for 160 yards and one touchdown if his 30-yard touchdown against the Saints wasn't called back because of a questionable holding penalty on right tackle Brian O'Neill. 

Give him that long run back and his numbers this season would be 34 carries for 190 yards and two touchdowns, which would equate to rate of 5.6 yards per attempt. It's a limited sample size but would rank second only to Jaylen Warren's 6.2 yards per rush for the Steelers this season. 

Nov 12, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Ty Chandler (32) runs with the ball against the New Orleans Saints in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium.  / Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Mattison ranks 39th in the NFL at 3.7 yards per carry and until proven otherwise, Mattison has slippery fingers. In Week 2 against the Eagles, he coughed up the ball immediately after the defense intercepted Jalen Hurts. And he had another fumble later that game that was overturned by an Eagles player lining up offsides. Then in Week 3 against the Chargers he clearly fumbled inside the 10-yard line but he was bailed out by the officials blowing the play dead.

So what's preventing the Vikings from giving Chandler the rock more often? Is it really all about pass protection and blitz pick-up? Here's a replay of Chandler picking up a blitz against the Broncos. 

Ty Chandler with a big blitz pickup so Josh Dobbs can hit Brandon Powell for an explosive play.

(Imagine reading that sentence back in Week 1) pic.twitter.com/ykZd1Bqh8d

— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) November 20, 2023

According to PFF, Chandler was responsible for two QB hits on Sunday night, including one in which Josh Dobbs' arm was hit and the ball fluttered in the air for an easy Denver interception. 

Ironically, that interception came on the first play for Minnesota after the Broncos turned Mattison's fumble into a field goal. 

PFF's stats say Chandler has been on the field for 53 pass plays this season, 13 of them requiring him to block someone and in those 13 tries he's allowed two QB hits and two QB hurries for a pass blocking grade of 26.9, which is awful. 

Mattison, meanwhile, has been on the field for 306 pass plays and been asked to block someone 64 times. In those 64 opportunities he's allowed two sacks, two hits and one hurry for a total of five pressures. His pass blocking grade is a respectable 62.3. 

There's give and take with Mattison and Chandler no matter how you look at it, but Chandler isn't giving the ball to opponents and he's proved to be a faster, more explosive and better receiver than Mattison. Do the Vikings see it the same way? We might find out Monday night against the Bears. 

Kevin O'Connell's fumbling message seems like warning to Mattison