SKOL Searching: Which playoff opponents can capitalize on the Vikings' biggest flaws?
In terms of Vikings nightmares, Sunday was about as scary as they come.
With the playoffs looming, the No. 1 seed still up for grabs and a chance to knock their arch-rival out of the playoffs, Minnesota instead invigorated the Packers’ Hail Mary effort for a wild card berth while simultaneously showcasing and amplifying many of its own flaws that have grown week over week.
The Vikings have picked up the pieces before. All of the team’s losses have been by at least 11 points and after each one, they’ve responded with a win the next week. Yet injuries and the stickiness of Minnesota’s issues that it seemingly hasn’t been able to shake all year cast doubts on their viability once the playoffs begin next week.
More than any time of the year, playoff matchups are about exposing the opponents’ weaknesses. What may determine whether the Vikings are bounced in the first round of the playoffs or can mount a charge in a still relatively-open NFC is how the schedule breaks for them and which opponents are suited to exploit Minnesota’s shortcomings.
The Vikings’ defensive woes are all well-documented. By the time the playoffs roll around, there will be no incompetent quarterbacks to prop up Minnesota’s performance nor poorly coached units. The Vikings have made the likes of Mike White and Mac Jones look like quarterbacks worth extending. Minnesota ranks 31st in points and yards allowed. That isn’t changing.
So, let’s take a look at the Vikings’ biggest offensive issues and how their potential opponents are or are not primed to take advantage.
Per Football Outsiders’ playoff projections, Minnesota has a 95.5% chance of being the No. 3 seed, so special attention will be focused on how the Vikings stack up against the Giants, who are locked into the No. 6 seed.
Offensive line
Minnesota’s biggest offensive issue corresponds with one of the universal strengths of its potential NFC playoff opponents. Barring a matchup against the Lions or Seahawks in the NFC Championship game, each of the Vikings’ possible opponents features game-wrecking potential on the defensive line.
Let’s just take a look at the top pressure rates in the league, per Pro Football Reference.
- Dallas Cowboys - 25.8%
- Philadelphia Eagles - 24.4%
- New York Giants - 23.8%
- Washington Commanders - 23.4%
- New England Patriots - 23.3%
- Buffalo Bills - 23.1%
- Cincinnati Bengals - 23.1%
- Green Bay Packers - 22.6%
For the Vikings to make any serious run through the playoffs, they’re probably going to need to beat two of the top three teams in pressure rate, beginning with the Giants.
In their last meeting, New York generated 15 pressures and sacked Kirk Cousins four times.
Dexter Lawerence, who is second only to Kansas City’s Chris Jones in pressures among interior defensive linemen, had seven of those pressures.
The only starting offensive lineman that didn’t allow a sack in that game was Brian O’Neill, who will not play in Week 18 and is unlikely to play in the postseason as head coach Kevin O’Connell said Monday both he and backup center Austin Schlottmann sustained “significant” injuries last week. Both were then placed on IR Tuesday.
O’Neill’s matchup was against Kayvon Thibodeaux, the Giants’ first-round pick in 2022, who is second in total pressures on the team. That will now likely be Oli Udoh’s assignment.
The one silver lining is Garrett Bradbury could return, which would bolster Minnesota’s center position from disastrous to average. He did not play against the Giants but has struggled in other opportunities against top pass rushes. He allowed five pressures against the Cowboys and four in the Week 1 matchup against the Packers.
If the Vikings get past the Giants, San Francisco is the next likely opponent. The 49ers are 15th in pressure rate but currently rank 1st in the NFL points allowed per game and EPA/play allowed. They are 2nd in defensive DVOA. They also have the NFL’s leader in pressures in Nick Bosa, who has 88. He’s second in the NFL with 17 sacks.
It would not get easier after that either. The NFL leader in sacks is Philadelphia’s Hasson Reddick. The Cowboys’ Micah Parsons is second in the league in pressures.
It’s for that reason that Minnesota’s offensive line deficiencies present the biggest problem for a sustained run of playoff success. The Vikings have overcome bad offensive line performances before, including against the Giants, but to expect it to happen week-over-week is a tall task, especially when there will likely be no drop in the opponent.
Cousins has been pressured at the fourth-highest rate of any starting NFL quarterback and that’s likely to continue regardless of the opponent.
The next option if Justin Jefferson is neutralized
The Vikings have scored fewer than 20 points three times this season. All three have resulted in losses and all three have been poor Justin Jefferson performances. In those games, he averaged 32 receiving yards, compared to 119.6 yards in the other 14 games.
All three of those games also came against potential playoff opponents – the Eagles, Cowboys and Packers.
Green Bay had the most success last week of any team this year, getting physical with Jefferson off the line of scrimmage, disrupting the receiver’s timing and then putting safety help over the top. Though, it's a task much easier said than done. Nearly every team this season has doubled Jefferson in some capacity. Some teams are just better equipped to deal with it than others. The Packers have Jaire Alexander and the Eagles have Darius Slay – that’s a good starting point.
It’s no secret that if teams can take away Jefferson, it neuters the Minnesota offense, but the only other answer the Vikings have been able to reliably go to is tight end T.J. Hockenson.
Football Outsiders measures how well defenses play each receiving option individually – the WR No. 1, 2, TE and RB. Here’s a chart of their DVOA rankings with the Vikings’ probable opponents and how they handle each different receiving option.
While the Giants appear ripe to attack the Vikings’ offensive line, they’ll need to get to Cousins at a high rate to shut down Jefferson, because it doesn’t appear they’re going to get much help from the secondary. Jefferson caught 12 of 16 targets for 133 yards and a touchdown against New York in Week 16. The matchup against the Giants is also a strong one for their second receiving option. Hockenson has surpassed Thielen as Cousins' No. 2 threat and that can be optimized against the Giants. We saw that in Week 16 too as Hockenson caught 13 passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns.
The matchup doesn’t favor the Vikings as strongly if they meet with the 49ers or Cowboys in the second round. They are good against both top wide receivers and tight ends. That’s not to say either team will have an easy time with Jefferson. The 49ers allowed Davante Adams to rack up 153 yards and two touchdowns last week. But in either of those matchups, both teams deploy strong talent and coaching, putting a greater emphasis on Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn. Osborn has shown flashes in recent weeks but Thielen has not. The 32-year-old wide receiver is averaging a career-low in yards per reception and yards per target since he became a full-time starter.
The Eagles appear to be the worst matchup in this respect. On the off chance the Vikings end up as the No. 2 seed, both the Seahawks and Lions would be favorable matchups. As we just saw last week, the Packers would present issues.
And it’s hard to rely on Minnesota’s running game either. Using Football Outsiders’ data once more, through the first nine weeks, the Vikings had an average running game. They ranked 15th in rush DVOA. From Weeks 10-17, they rank 31st in rush DVOA. Dalvin Cook has rushed for over 100 yards just once in that span, which came against the Buffalo Bills, the same game he broke off an 81-yard run.
But if there’s a team Minnesota could potentially run against, it’s the Giants. New York ranks 29th in rush EPA/play allowed and 31st in yards per carry allowed. Minnesota averaged 4.4 yards per carry in Week 16. On the other side of the spectrum, the 49ers rank 1st in yards per carry allowed.
The bottom line
Barring a miraculous collapse by the 49ers, Minnesota is going to be the No. 3 seed. That’s likely the best place they could be for the first round, facing the Giants.
Consider the options at the No. 7 seed. Detroit and Seattle are both weak defensive teams, especially in the areas where teams normally take advantage of the Vikings. But of the potential opponents, the Seahawks and Lions are the scariest offenses. Then consider both of them need help. Seattle needs to win and Green Bay to lose. Detroit needs Seattle to lose and beat Green Bay. Given their recent stretch of performances, the Packers are in the driver’s seat. That’s a potential matchup that Minnesota does not want to see, given how last Sunday went and also how the underlying statistics stack up.
The Vikings’ best shot at survival is against the Giants. After that it gets tough, but that’s how it should be in the playoffs.
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Related: Brian Murphy: Was the Vikings' loss in Green Bay foreshadowing?
