Something about the Vikings' matchup with the Giants just feels right
EAGAN — On Christmas Eve, the Minnesota Vikings faced a familiar situation at US Bank Stadium. They had the ball with under one minute to play and needed to make something happen in order to avoid going to overtime.
Naturally, Justin Jefferson found his way open on third-and-long and Kirk Cousins delivered with pressure bearing down. And then Jefferson took a screen pass just far enough to get into Greg Joseph’s range.
Joseph got to play hero against the New York Giants in the Vikings’ 27-24 win that day with his career-high 61-yard game winner. It was his turn in a year that saw Jefferson KJ Osborn, Harrison Smith, Patrick Peterson, TJ Hockenson and even Duke Shelley rise to the occasion in the biggest moments.
Throughout the season the Vikings have played one barn burner after the next and no game was more emblematic of the strengths that have carried them through to a 13-win season and the weaknesses that have made fans seasick from all the games that have rocked back and forth on choppy waters.
At times during the first iteration of Giants-Vikings, it felt like Minnesota should be winning by 50 points. The Vikings got up 7-0 on an 84-yard drive that looked like Cousins was driving a Ferrari and then rookie Brian Asamoah caused a fumble that put them in position to jump all over the G-Men. But after moving the ball to the New York 16-yard line, Cousins took a sack and the Vikings only went up 10-0.
Leaving the door open for their opponents has been a common motif. Whether it was the Saints, Bears, Dolphins, Cardinals, Jets or Giants, the Vikings routinely struggled to pull away for good even when outplaying their opponents.
By early in the third quarter, the Giants had tied things up. And then it was 11-on-11 ping pong. The next five drives went: Giants field goal, Vikings touchdown, Giants interception, Vikings turnover on downs, Giants field goal.
In very 2022-ish fashion, special teams made a difference. The Vikings blocked a punt, Jefferson ran a route that would make Jerry Rice blush and they were up 24-16 with a chance to get one stop and end the game.
If only life were so easy. Daniel Jones drove the Giants the length of the field for a touchdown, converted the two-point conversion and set up the Vikings for the game-winning drive.
It was arguably the Vikings’ most evenly-played game versus any opponent this year. Each club finished with 23 first downs, both QBs had around 300 yards, both running games were effective and both defenses had miscues and shining moments.
“Every time we had a chance to get momentum and keep it they were able to put a drive together and get points,” O’Connell said on Monday. “Defense turned the ball over a couple of times with some timely interceptions, but you’d like to limit some of those explosive plays. First and second down explosive plays that tend to sometimes stack together a little bit and give offenses momentum. We want to get people to third down and see if we can activate a rush and tie the coverage into it.”
Beyond their previous matchup, the Vikings and Giants have some interesting things in common. First, the fact that both clubs’ candidacy as playoff contenders was questioned all year long. New York finished the season with a minus-6 point differential, the Vikings minus-3. The Giants rank an unimpressive 15th in points scored and 17th in points allowed, while the Vikings cracked the top 10 offensively (eighth) but finished 28th on defense.
Both teams have first-year head coaches who have captured the belief of their players and squeezed more blood from stones that were thought to be tapped out. Prior to this season, Daniel Jones was 12-25 with an 84.3 QB rating and a serious tendency to turn the ball over. This year under Brian Daboll he’s 9-6-1 with just five interceptions. On the other side, Kirk Cousins’ acumen in the clutch had been (fair or not) questioned during his time with the Vikings. With Kevin O’Connell in his ear, he’s led eight game-winning drives.
Both teams have some of the NFL’s top and bottom performers at their positions.
On offense, Justin Jefferson led the NFL in receiving and put his names in the annals of history with 1,809 yards while Saquon Barkley returned to his rightful place as an elite running back with 1,312 yards on the ground and 57 receptions.
Defensively, Za’Darius Smith finished fourth in the league in total QB pressures and Danielle Hunter sixth (per PFF). The Giants’ strength is on the interior, where Dexter Lawrence ranked second among defensive tackles in pressures only behind Kansas City’s Chris Jones and Leonard Williams, despite being banged up, ranked 11th in pass rush win rate.
On the down side, the Vikings’ two starting guards allowed more sacks and more QB pressures than any other tandem in the NFL. Likewise, Giants right tackle Evan Neal had the third worst pass blocking efficiency at his position. And on defense, Vikings nickel corner Chandon Sullivan led the NFL in receptions allowed into his coverage with 72. On New York’s side, linebackers Micah McFadden and Tae Crowder have each allowed over 120 QB ratings on throws into their coverage.
Now the two rookie coaches have a fascinating challenge: How much do you adapt? How much do you keep from the last matchup? Do you try to throw curveballs or stick to the script?
“You can be lulled into the, ‘We’ve seen these guys, we know what they’re going to do,” defensive tackle Harrison Phillips said. “I don’t think that’s the case. It’s so hard to beat a team twice. You’ve seen that in our season already. The benefit is that we do know what we had some success with.
The Vikings and Giants will have players who missed Round 1. O’Connell gets tight end Irv Smith Jr. back in the mix after he’s missed the majority of the season with an ankle injury. However, they will be without Brian O’Neill and possibly Garrett Bradbury. O’Connell said on Monday they hoped Bradbury could practice on Wednesday but wasn’t clear on his chances to play.
New York may have corner Adoree Jackson in the mix. Last year he gave up a 73.4 QB rating on throws into his coverage and this season that number is just 85.3 with seven pass breakups. His status is not certain along with DT Leonard Williams but Daboll said both are likely to practice on Wednesday.
“They’re getting a little more healthy on the defensive side of the ball and in secondary, so I’m sure we’ll see a variety of different things new,” O’Connell said. “Playing off of what we did in that game and how they defended us in that game and then ultimately what they think is best to try to defend us in a one game deal where you’re moving on or you’re not. I think it’s important that we look at our scheme in all three phases. What we’ve done and trying to identify where we’re vulnerable, but then also the things we’ve done well and can we take things to another level and can we do some new things and use different personnel.”
Aside from tweaks in personnel, the mentalities will be a little different. When the Vikings and Giants played in Week 16 the intensity was high because each club was playing for something. The Giants still needed to secure a playoff spot and the Vikings were aiming to retain the No. 2 seed. But the playoffs are different.
“Historically when you look at the playoffs it’s truly an any-given Sunday thing…you can execute on 99 of your 100 plays and that one other play might get you,” Phillips said. “That’s some of the messaging that we’re going to preach is being as consistent as we can…you’ve seen when we’re firing on all three sides of the ball and if we bring that consistently we can win a handful of games here.”
The bottom line for the Vikings and Giants isn’t just that they make for a good Sunday afternoon matchup, it’s also a good litmus test for the Vikings. If the question is whether they are strong enough to go deep in the postseason, the Giants offer a very good prove-it opponent to begin with. If they can take care of New York, the door opens for a special run.
“Our goal coming out of training camp was to win our division, to give ourselves an opportunity to host a playoff game, and then really start talking about what the goal is now,” O’Connell said. “You’re in the tournament, but it is so important to stay laser focused week in and week out. That’s what makes the NFL playoffs such a challenge because if you don’t pour everything you have schematically, personnel, getting your team turned over and getting them fresh for your 18th game, and then hopefully more on from there, but you got to treat every single week truly as a one game season because if you don’t, there’s a good chance your season will be over.”
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