The future of the Vikings, Part 2: Running back
For most of the Minnesota Vikings’ successful seasons over the last two decades, a heavy reliance on and success in the run game was a common characteristic. Mike Zimmer’s philosophy and a pair of generational running back talents in Adrian Peterson and Dalvin Cook made sure of it.
That certainly was not the case this season. New Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell fully leaned into Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and the passing game.
Whether by design or necessity, the running game became an afterthought and an achilles heel for the otherwise dangerous Minnesota offense.
Pretty much every metric tells the same story. The Vikings ranked 28th in rush attempts, 27th in yards and 26 in yards per/attempt. By Football Outsiders’ DVOA, they ranked 28th. In expected points added per rush, they ranked 29th. In success rate, they ranked 25th.
In the playoffs against the Giants, a bottom-five run defense in the league, Minnesota mustered just 61 yards. The Eagles ran for 268 yards on the same defense the next week.
Those numbers alone imply change is necessary, but given the contract situations in the running back room, that was likely going to happen this offseason anyway.
Will they move on from Dalvin Cook?
Cook’s 2023 cap hit currently sits at $14.1 million (6.4% of the team’s total salary cap, the highest percentage of Cook’s 5-year deal). If the Vikings cut or trade him before June 1, they’d save roughly $8 million against the cap. If they wait until after June 1, they’d save about $11 million. With the Vikings currently $24 million over the cap already that’s not insignificant savings – and considering Cook’s production this season, it might be warranted.
Cook averaged a career-low 4.4 yards per carry. More than that though was the lack of consistent explosiveness. Cook’s 50 first downs on rushes are the lowest since he became a full-time starter – despite playing all 17 games in a season for the first time in his career. He struggled particularly in creating yards after contact, now a two-year trend.
In both 2019 and 2020, Cook averaged 2.4 yards after contact per rush. That dropped to 1.9 in 2021 and 1.8 in 2022, which ranked 24th among running backs. Similarly, Cook is breaking tackles less frequently than ever before. He has 28 total broken tackles in the last two seasons. In 2020 alone, he had 33. The consistent lack of pop in the run game plagued Minnesota’s offense. Now entering his age 28 season with nearly 1300 carries for his career, is there any reason to believe he’ll return to the runner he once was? Especially considering he’s slated to have the 6th highest cap hit among running backs?
It wasn’t the product of the offensive line either. While the unit certainly had its struggles, Cook averaged 2.6 yards before contact, which ranked 14th amongst running backs with at least 100 carries. That’s also right on pace with every other year of his career.
With a new regime in charge, one that didn’t give him his five-year extension, it seems much more likely that they cut ties. If Zimmer and Rick Spielman were still in charge, it’s likely a harder question to answer.
Still, there is a world Cook could return – potentially on a cheaper restructured deal. Cook is owed no more guaranteed money, per OverTheCap, so a short restructure that guarantees him some cash upfront could entice the running back. It might entice the Vikings too – depending on their answer to the next question.
Is Alexander Mattison as good as gone?
The assumption all season long has been that Mattison would be playing elsewhere in 2023. His usage this season suggests the same. Firmly behind Cook on the depth chart, Mattison had a career-low in both carries and yards – a result of Cook’s sustained health. His 3.8 yards per carry were near the lowest of his career. After being targeted in the passing game 39 times in 2021, that dropped to 18 this season. In every aspect, Mattison’s role shrunk.
If Cook is retained, the assumption will almost assuredly become a reality. But if Cook becomes a cap casualty, could Mattison be a target to resign?
The price tag will likely be modest. The top free-agent running back last year was Leonard Fournette. His deal was for 3 years and $21 million. Mattison’s track record isn’t that strong though. He may not even garner something closer to what Chase Edmonds and Cordarelle Patterson received, which was a 2-year deal worth around $5-6 million per year. Considering this year’s running back class is filled with plenty of potential options – Josh Jacobs, Kareem Hunt. Rashaad Penny, Jamaal Williams, Raheem Mostert – the market for Mattison might be quiet, especially off a year that he barely played. Spotrac estimates Mattison’s value around $2.2 million per year.
If Minnesota opts to make another all-in run, Mattison could be a cheaper option than Cook that’s likely to produce roughly the same results. It would allow the Vikings to push forward on a win-now mantra without committing the type of resources they did to Cook. In that scenario, turning over the keys to Kene Nwangwu and Ty Chandler as the team eyes a playoff run is possible but unlikely. Would Chandler’s strong rookie preseason be proof enough to give him the job on a hopeful contender? He may have a better case than Nwangwu considering Chandler was a draft pick of the current regime and Nwangu’s role never took the jump some anticipated as he was relegated to only a return role.
Now if the Vikings opt to take a step back – leading with the inexpensive young players makes much more sense.
That leaves Mattison in a state of limbo – much of which will be decided by what other teams think of him. If his market isn’t as strong as he’d like, maybe there’s a scenario that returns to Minnesota.
Regardless of the personnel in the running back room, more tweaks will likely need to be made for this team to improve its run game, but what can those be?
The Vikings' offensive line likely won’t look drastically different. The cornerstone tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill will be back. Ed Ingram is a second-round pick that this regime picked just a year ago and Ezra Cleveland similarly was a recent top pick as well. A new center could be possible but isn’t a guarantee. So where is the wide-scale improvement coming from? Internal development might be the simplest and most likely answer. Another year of NFL snaps for Ingram and Cleveland could help them settle in – something that often takes several years for an interior lineman. Maybe it comes from scheme adjustments from O’Connell or a breakout year from Chandler.
Easy fixes to Minnesota’s run game woes aren’t cut and dry – and the unit enters the offseason as arguably the biggest question mark on offense.
Related: The future of the Vikings, Part 1: Quarterback
Related: 7 players the Vikings need to cut to escape salary cap hell
