The future of the Vikings, Part 5: Defensive line
The Minnesota Vikings’ defensive line had a quality 2022 season with three players finishing in the top 20 starters at their position by PFF grade. While the team would likely appreciate having them return as a starting point for the defensive rebuild, there are challenges ahead due to contract status for all three star players. Let’s have a look at what’s in the way and the potential solutions…
The Danielle Hunter decision
Technically speaking, the Vikings do not have to make a decision on Danielle Hunter’s future this offseason but for all intents and purposes it’s time to pay or get off the pot. Hunter is set to make just $5.5 million in cash next season and carry a $13.1 million cap hit, according to OverTheCap.com. Per his OTC valuation, that number should be closer to $20 million. Even if Hunter was willing to step on the field with his current deal — which he shouldn’t be (and he can afford to hold out) — it doesn’t make much sense to play him for 2023 and then let him walk in free agency when he could net the Vikings good return in the form of draft capital.
Hunter’s contract voids after 2023, meaning that if the Vikings don’t extend him, they’ll take on an $11.2 million cap hit in 2024 for him to play elsewhere, even if he’s traded.
Hunter has every right to demand top dollar from the Vikings. After questions about his health justified the team’s decision to kick his contract crossroads down the line for another year, he proved that he was healthy enough to be the same superstar that he was back in 2019. Hunter finished the year sixth in QB pressures among edge rushers and received the eighth highest PFF grade at his position. At 28 years old, he’s got an argument that there’s plenty of prime years left to go.
The case to extend him is pretty straight forward. He’s a star at a premium position and the Vikings can’t afford to lose elite talent off a defense that needs lots of work. Aside from missing time due to injuries, Hunter has been one of the most consistent players in the league from a production standpoint. There’s no safer bet when it comes to work ethic or locker room presence, either.
The case against an extension starts with the price tag. Top pass rushers are getting between $23-$28 million annually. For a team that needs a lot of help, that’s a huge amount to pour into one player, even if he’s terrific. And his age might not be a factor but long-term concerns about the accumulation of injuries must be considered. With only two top-100 draft picks, the Vikings desperately need draft capital and Hunter is one of the few players on the roster that could get significant return in a trade. Last year Khalil Mack was traded from Chicago to Los Angeles for a 2022 second-round draft pick and a 2023 sixth-rounder.
One potential problem with a trade is that Hunter’s dead cap hit jumps to $18.6 million if he’s traded before June 1, so they wouldn’t be able to use the created cap space for this year’s free agency. If he’s traded after June 1, the Vikings only take on a $7.6 million hit and his void years get spread out through 2025.
Neither option is perfect. On one hand, imagine telling the new defensive coordinator that you’re aiming to improve the defense by parting ways with a top-10 edge rusher. On the other, paying out long-term deals to everyone who was great in the past has not paid off for the Vikings.
The decision surrounding Hunter will be part of a bigger set of choices concerning where the organization sees itself over the next few seasons. If they are in true “competitive rebuild” mode, then it might be difficult to justify paying a player with some risk involved the absolute top dollar. If they are going to repeat last year’s offseason, we can expect Hunter’s extension press conference to come soon enough.
Za’Darius Smith’s contract
Considering that the Vikings’ signing of Za’Darius Smith was one of the best moves in the entire NFL last offseason, it’s hard to fathom a scenario in which the team’s top pass rusher in terms of QB pressures (and fourth overall in the NFL) is not in Minnesota in 2023 but contracts are always about what’s going to happen next and Smith’s future projection is tricky.
In the second half of the season, Smith battled a knee issue and his production dipped. Here’s how his numbers looked before and after Week 10:
Before: 88.8 PFF pass rush grade, 6.1 QB pressures per game, 9.5 sacks. 24.5% pass rush win rate
After: 70.1 PFF pass rush grade, 3.3 QB pressures per game, 1 sack, 18.3% pass rush win rate
There were concerns when he signed about long-term health but the first half of the season seemed to quiet any worries about whether he could still dominate. The second half, however, may raise questions about repeating the altogether great season that he had in 2022. Smith’s contract was designed to have a salary cap eject button in case his health didn’t hold up. If the Vikings cut or trade him, it would create $12.2 million in cap space and only carry $3.3 million in dead money.
If Vikings don’t want to do anything drastic with their star rusher, they could restructure the deal to create more cap space (around $5 million, per OTC). But there’s also the question of whether Smith is going to be OK with playing on his current deal. He’s essentially on a year-to-year contract with hardly anything in terms of guarantees or bonuses going forward. After a 10-sack season, he could feel that he earned future security like some of his colleagues. Von Miller, for example, got a six-year, $120 million contract with $45 million guaranteed at signing despite being 33 and having missed a full season in 2020. Randy Gregory, 30, signed a five year, $70 million contract with the Broncos that had $28 million is fully guaranteed.
Add Smith’s name to the bucket of complex contract situations facing GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. The Vikings must compare their serious need to improve on defense with the best moves for the future of the salary cap. The choice might be easier if the team had successors on the edges but neither Patrick Jones or DJ Wonnum appear ready to take over as starters. Jones ranked 80th and Wonnum 91st in pass rush win rate among all starters and rotational edge rushers, per PFF.
Extend Dalvin Tomlinson?
You won’t find a more consistent player than Dalvin Tomlinson. He’s been in the NFL since 2017 and every year he has played between 575 and 675 snaps and graded by PFF between 74.9 and 81.0 (which is good enough to rank in the top 20 among defensive tackles). This year Tomlinson registered his highest pass rush grade but it doesn’t appear to be an anomaly because he’s been on an upward trajectory for the past three seasons as a pass rusher.
The Vikings’ defense would be better in the coming years if they could keep Tomlinson but that might prove difficult. His contract has three void years built in, meaning that he will become a free agent if he doesn’t agree to an extension and the Vikings will be stuck with a $7.5 million bill on the 2023 cap. If they do extend him they can spread that dead cap space over the next three years.
While Tomlinson has been a good fit in Minnesota, it’s hard to figure why he would sign an extension without testing the free agent market. The best middle-stuffing defensive tackles like DJ Reader and Vita Vea, who also have a dash of pass-rush skill, are making between $13-$18 million per year. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a cap-healthy team pay him full price.
If the Vikings can’t re-sign Tomlinson before his contract voids on the third day of the new league year (in mid-March), they’ll take a major L on the cap and are left with a huge gap on the defensive line.
The cupboard isn’t completely bare on the interior of the defensive line but it does need work. Veteran Harrison Phillips played over 700 snaps this year and remains reasonably priced ($6.8 million) for next season. The Vikings also discovered a potential quality gap-stuffer in Khyiris Tonga, who is a restricted free agent. Former fourth-round pick James Lynch came in for 290 snaps but does not appear to be a major rotational player in the future. Trading for pass-rushing DT Ross Blacklock did not pay off. Rookie Esezi Otomewo flashed in 90 total snaps.
Draft on the D-line?
The early mock drafts, including ESPN’s Mel Kiper, are locking the Vikings into a cornerback in the first round. Of course, there’s a long way to go before draft day. How the D-line contract issues play out could greatly impact the approach. In last year’s draft the Vikings took two cornerbacks in Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans. They may be planning on both becoming starters in 2023 and look to fill other needs. Should the Vikings move on from either Hunter or Smith, the probability would increase of picking an edge rusher. Same goes for Tomlinson. The Vikings haven’t had a truly effective interior pass rusher since Tom Johnson. You don’t have to look farther than the Super Bowl to see the advantage of Chris Jones and Fletcher Cox making life difficult on opposing QBs. It would make sense to consider a rusher who could compliment a gap stuffer like Phillips.
