The future of the Vikings, Part 8: The timeline
The irony of the Minnesota Vikings’ current situation is that if Justin Jefferson wasn’t the best receiver in the NFL, everything would be clearer.
No doubt, it’s a good problem to have — a player so gifted that he impacts the entire trajectory of an organization. Usually you only see that with quarterbacks. Then again, usually you only see MVP finalists as quarterbacks.
Over his three years, Jefferson has nearly 400 yards more receiving than the next best receiver, superstar Davante Adams. He leads the NFL in yards per target since 2020 and has graded in the top three receivers by Pro Football Focus in each season of his young career.
What those factoids mean is that the ball is in Jefferson’s court as it pertains to his future. It isn’t the Vikings’ front office who have to make a decision on Jefferson as he enters his first offseason eligible for a contract extension, it’s Jefferson who needs to make a decision on the Vikings. If he puts pen to paper in the coming months, he will undoubtedly become the highest paid player at his position but he isn’t forced to sign a long-term deal this offseason. He could wait and see how things play out and where the rest of the team stands before deciding on whether to lock himself into Minnesota for the foreseeable future.
On locker cleanout day Jefferson was asked about his future and he only said he wants to play where he’s wanted. He has to know that he’s wanted everywhere, so what else could the decision depend on? Money will be anywhere. Targets will come anywhere. Team direction? Future quarterback? It’s hard to know for sure.
We can only guess what his requirements to sign a long-term deal soon might be. We can, however, confidently say that if they aren’t met, the Vikings risk losing him. You don’t have to look far to find other elite receivers who have changed teams recently. Whether it’s Davante Adams going to play with his college buddy Derek Carr or Stefon Diggs searching for targets and better odds at a ring in Buffalo or Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown looking for top dollar in other cities, it’s become commonplace.
If Jefferson has more needs than just making the most money, it complicates the Vikings’ timeline. Otherwise it would be easy to make an argument for a complete roster refresh and plans to work around his contract down the road. Side note: If it’s similarly structured to AJ Brown, he wouldn’t become wildly expensive for a couple years because the Vikings can spread out the costs more by doing the deal now.
If Jefferson doesn’t agree to a new contract soon, it complicates the franchise’s position because the Vikings have all of the signs of a team that needs to rebuild. Nearly all of their most expensive players are either past their primes or in need of a new, expensive contract. The 30-plus club of Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Harrison Smith, Za’Darius Smith and Eric Kendricks combine to make up over $100 million in cap space in 2023 on their current deals. Dalvin Cook, who is coming off a down year by his standards, is set to carry a $14 million cap hit if he isn’t released. Danielle Hunter becomes a free agent after next year, meaning it’s time to extend or trade him.
Considering the wear and tear of the NFL, many of the aforementioned players were already outliers by having the largely healthy and mostly effective 2022 seasons that they had. Betting on them to continue in the future would mean going against history. Not to mention that they (outside of Za’Darius Smith) have been part of a five-year span in which the Vikings have been to divisional playoff weekend just once.
Recently teams like the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons found themselves in similar positions. Each team had a very good quarterback but reached the point where their rosters faded and then they moved on from their expensive, aging franchise QBs. The difference is that the Vikings won 13 games last season, making it difficult to sell a Seahawks, Lions or Falcons-like reset. Those teams all waited one year too long with Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan, respectively, and went through at least one miserable year before trading them away.
The Vikings could recreate the “but maybe it could work for us” meme from Arrested Development by selling out to keep it all together for 2023 or they could get started on the future and believe in what is there in the tea leaves — that all signs are pointing toward next year being vastly different than 2022, whether that’s in performance of older players, a harder schedule, less good luck in one-score games or worse health.
But there’s a lot of risk that goes along with hitting the reset button, particularly losing the confidence of Jefferson, but also failing to replace the players who have made this team competitive for a long time in the short and long run. If not Kirk Cousins, then who? What if a draft pick turns into Josh Rosen or Zach Wilson? What if they sell out for a quarterback and the defense remains broken for years to come? What if they create cap space to sign players and then those signings don’t work out?
There’s also the fear of missing out on one more shot. What if they bail on these guys and they go elsewhere and succeed? What if there was one more chance in 2023 and they passed on it?
And who’s convincing the owners and head coach that it’s a good idea to send a bunch of key players packing? They might want to follow up on a 13-win season by getting better, not worse. The culture of collaboration might be thrown to the cows if everyone can’t agree on which parts to buy and sell. Imagine trying to do a yard sale with your family members and they value an Iron Maiden T-shirt collection way more than you do.
Is there a middle ground? A real “competitive rebuild?” A place where they move out some of the old, get younger and create more cap flexibility for the future without giving up on 2023?
Not every team who became a legitimate contender did so by dropping everyone off their roster and falling to the bottom.
The Tennessee Titans went through four straight 9-7 seasons before winning back-to-back divisions in 2020 and 2021 by developing talent through the draft in the form of players like Jeffrey Simmons, AJ Brown, Corey Davis, Harold Landry, Adoree Jackson and Jonnu Smith.
The Dallas Cowboys had four straight middling seasons between 2017-2020 before landing Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons in the draft and then they shot to the top of the NFC East.
The New Orleans Saints won more than seven games just once between 2012 and 2016 and then won 11 or more for four straight years. Again, drafting was at the center of the success with Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore, Alvin Kamara and Co.
That route may seem less risky than taking it down to the screws but teams like the Raiders, Colts and Commanders are counter examples. The Raiders tried to add Davante Adams to a weak overall roster and won six games. The Colts brought in Matt Ryan to give them solid QB play around a supposedly good club and won four games. The Commanders believed Carson Wentz could get them back to the playoffs and landed at 8-8-1.
A front office has less control over its own success when escaping the middle is so strongly dependent on draft luck. Nobody knows that better than the Vikings. Their ultimate downfall in 2022, the defensive side, had one starter drafted after 2015: Safety Cam Bynum. It’s unclear whether the 2022 draft will bear fruit in the near future with three of the four defensive picks suffering season-ending injuries.
Picking a quarterback in the draft would seem to put a boot in both win-now and rebuild buckets. They could play to win in 2023 with plans to transition to a younger, more cap-healthy look in 2024. It sure worked for the two teams who are playing for the Super Bowl this year. Each drafted QBs with a solidified starter still on the roster.
That’s not so simple either, considering how many teams are QB-needy and the lack of draft capital to sweeten a trade to move up. And it would leave Kirk Cousins in a lame-duck position. He probably wouldn’t be as dramatic about it as Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers but it would be a distraction.
It’s hard to know whether that option would be more or less attractive to Justin Jefferson, who has certainly caught a lot of passes from Cousins over the last three years.
If you haven’t figured this out by now, there’s no easy answer. If this were the Madden video game, you’d trade everyone away for amazing return, simulate the season, draft a bunch of players, spend a bunch of money and be ready to rock ‘n roll in 2024. In real life there’s far more to be considered, like the feelings of owners who have dolled out enough money to buy a small country only to see one trip to the NFC Championship since Brett Favre was under center. Or the feelings of a head coach who had a terrific debut season. Or the view of a megastar receiver who understands that he holds the cards.
Will they bring the band back again and hope that a new defensive coordinator does the trick? Will they move on from some players, add some others and try to improve around an offense that cracked the top 10 last year? Will they clear out a bunch of popular players while holding onto enough of the core to compete? Or will they make a more bold move and draft a QB and/or take the roster apart?
It’s only Year 2 of the Adofo-Mensah/O’Connell era but it appears we have reached a crossroads with the regime already. This offseason’s decisions will have a ripple effect for years to come. They’ll need to choose carefully how they plot out the timeline.
Related: Kirk Cousins to 49ers? Only if Vikings plan to tank, 'Niners are desperate
