The micro and macro views of the Minnesota Vikings are quite different
MINNEAPOLIS — In the grand scheme of things, the Minnesota Vikings’ win over the Detroit Lions was very good.
It brings them to 2-0 in the division. It keeps them tied at the top of the NFC North while heading into two games against NFC opponents that look weak this year in New Orleans and Chicago. It gives them a little bit of breathing room in case there is a slip up in either of those two games. At this point their chances of going into the Week 7 bye above .500 appear to be very high. That would be quite a deviation from the way they have opened seasons in the past.
There’s also the element of confidence. Throughout Sunday’s 28-24 win there were times where the Vikings looked flustered, particularly in the first half when Kirk Cousins was forced to call a timeout in the red zone after struggling to get his receivers lined up correctly and when Justin Jefferson wasn’t getting the ball late in the game. But those things are smoothed over by a victory.
“Both times at U.S. Bank Stadium, against a divisional opponent, we’ve come back in the locker room to some feelings of really understanding that we believe in each other and believe in our team,” head coach Kevin O’Connell said.
Coming out of a section of the schedule that looks like it may end up being one of the most difficult three-game stretches of the season at 2-1 is about the best-case scenario for the beginning of the O’Connell era. Vikings fans needed that. They haven’t seen 2-1 since beating Oakland at home on September 22, 2019.
“You can just feel the emotion of the whole stadium…unbelievable effort by our fans today,” O’Connell said. “When we had to have it in those critical moments, we felt them right where they need to be. And we're gonna need that as many times we get to play at this stadium this year.”
While the 30,000-foot view is fairly glowing, the Vikings under a microscope have some concerning signs, starting with the passing game.
Over the last two weeks Cousins has thrown 87 passes and gained just 5.5 yards per attempt. ESPN’s QBR, which weighs QB performance against situation on a 1-100 scale scored Cousins a poor 21.9 in Philadelphia and 42.0 against Detroit. In those two contests, superstar receiver Justin Jefferson has nine catches for 62 yards — or about one-third the yardage that he had in the first half against Green Bay in Week 1.
Per ESPN’s Mike Clay, Jefferson ran routes against Jeff Okudah 32 times and caught zero passes. His 14 yards against Detroit are the lowest total of Jefferson’s career. The Vikings, by way of their final drive comeback from down 10 points in the fourth quarter, improved to just 3-7 when Jefferson is held under 60 yards.
“Justin had a huge impact on this game, it just didn’t show up on the stat sheet,” O’Connell said. “But that’s not good enough. I’ve got to do a better job getting Justin (looks) of lining up in different spots and personnel groupings – whatever I need to do to help.”
“It’s frustrating, for sure,” Jefferson said. “But I asked for it, just playing the way I’ve been playing, just being the type of player that I am. Those double teams and triple teams are going to come, but that’s the luxury of having Adam and KJ on the other side.”
If Jefferson’s shortage of targets meant that the other receivers were thriving, nobody would bat an eye but that hasn’t been the case, save for Osborn’s wide open 28-yard game-winning touchdown. Adam Thielen picked up six catches for 61 yards against the Lions. Nine of 24 completed passes went in the direction of tight ends and fullbacks (and only two of those were to Irv Smith Jr.).
The short-pass mania has come despite fairly solid performances by the offensive line. Cousins had the fifth slowest time from snap to throw of any QB that played on Sunday and was only sacked once.
“Give (the Lions) a lot of credit,” O’Connell said. “They did some things defensively that caused us to kind of have to alter our plan that we came in with, especially in the passing game.”
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings’ bend-don’t-break defense was very bendy again on Sunday. They allowed the Lions to get up by two scores twice and gave up over 400 yards total offense.
One of the reasons Goff put up a strong 73.4 on ESPN’s QBR scale was that he wasn’t often pressured. The Vikings finished with two QB hits and zero sacks. That was also the case last week against Philadelphia and even during Week 1 they only got in Aaron Rodgers’ face on about one of every four dropbacks, per PFF pressure data. The Vikings have relied largely upon Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter to get in the faces of opposing quarterbacks and the duo hasn’t consistently created that pressure.
The secondary had its share of struggles during the past two weeks. They allowed Goff to find open receivers with Amon-Ra St. Brown gaining 73 yards and Josh Reynolds gaining 96 yards through the air. That’s a week after Jalen Hurts completed 26 of 31 passes for 333 yards.
The Vikings’ defense got a few timely stops and was aided by Dan Campbell choosing to strangely kick a field goal on fourth-and-four with an opportunity to win with a first down — a decision that Campbell said he regretted following the game. But through three games there are plenty of reasons to think that the defense can’t carry the team for long periods of time if called upon.
So what does all of that mean?
Well, the Vikings are in an NFC race in which almost every team not named Philadelphia can be unhappy with their starts to the season. The Packers scored 14 points on Sunday. Chicago barely escaped the lowly Texans. Every NFC North team has between a plus-2 and minus-5 point differential.
But the fact that other teams are flawed only makes it more important that the Vikings find answers for the issues that allowed Detroit to nearly walk into US Bank Stadium and beat them on Sunday.
“We’re still getting there,” Cousins said. “We’re still getting there. And I think you can see today, it’s not where I want it to be. It’s a good plan. It’s just, time on task. Every game, we’re learning something and getting better. But we just don’t have time. We’ve got to get it locked in.”
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