The Vikings' offensive line is getting worse by the week
Winners of their last six games, the Minnesota Vikings are in the midst of their longest winning streak since 2017, when quarterback Case Keenum led an eight-game win streak en route to a 13-3 season and a playoff run that nobody needs to be reminded about (Keenum could end this latest streak, ironically).
Yet as the win column keeps growing this season, the issues that continue to hamper long-term optimism in Minnesota persist. And some, it turns out, are getting worse. There is no more clear example than the offensive line.
Since Week 6, Kirk Cousins has been pressured on 43.6% of his dropbacks, fifth-most in the NFL. The only quarterbacks that were pressured more frequently during that stretch were Davis Mills, Taylor Heinecke, Derek Carr and Justin Fields. None of those teams are above .500 and all but one, the Chicago Bears, are currently last in their respective divisions.
The pressure Cousins sustained in Washington appears unsustainable for future success. He took several big hits, including one that forced him out of the game for a play. The Commanders’ defensive line pressured Cousins on 45.2% of dropbacks, the highest mark allowed by the Vikings this season. For nearly every quarterback in the NFL, more pressure leads to worse play. Cousins is no exception. He has registered a passer rating of 67 when under pressure (15th in NFL). His passer rating is 113 when not under pressure, (6th in the NFL)
More pivotally though is the apparent lack of any improvement along the line. Through the first month of the season, Minnesota’s league aver offensive line was praised as an improvement and previous iterations of the unit. After five weeks, Cousins had been pressured on 30% of his dropbacks, which ranked 17th in the NFL, and the line’s play was trending in the right direction.
With young players across the offensive line anchored by a proven tackle in Brian O’Neill, conventional wisdom pointed towards incremental growth for the unit as a whole, but that growth has fully subsided and been replaced with noticeable regression, particularly in two spots – the guards.
Per PFF, rookie right guard Ed Ingram has allowed NFL-high 31 pressures this season, despite the Vikings already having their bye week. Left guard Ezra Cleveland has allowed 25 pressures, the 10th-most in the league. Nine of those pressures came against the Commanders when the second-year left guard registered a 0.0 pass-blocking grade.
Ingram and Cleveland have struggled in spurts throughout the year, but it has come to a head since the Week 6 win against Miami. Since the Dolphins game, Ingram and Cleveland have allowed 27 total pressures. No starting guard duo has allowed pressures at a more frequent rate than Cleveland and Ingram over the last month.
Garrett Bradbury has allowed six pressures in the same time frame. Christian Darrisaw has surrendered three pressures and O’Neill has allowed just a single pressure in those three games.
The result is a below-average unit, as illustrated here by Ben Baldwin. Baldwin combined PFF and ESPN statistics to compile offensive line rankings (Note: this is using data from the entire season).
Or if you prefer to look at it with a graph.
It’s evidence of the offensive line being a weak-link system. Both Darrisaw and O’Neil are having stellar seasons, but it doesn’t matter much if there are turnstiles across the rest of the line.
Seemingly one of the ways defenses have begun exploiting Minnesota’s o-line is through blitzing – which has notably increased over the last three games.
Through Week 5, Cousins was being blitzed on 21.5% of dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in the league. Only Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert were being pressured less frequently. Since Week 6, Cousins has been blitzed on 40.2% of his dropbacks, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
The teams the Vikings have played bear some responsibility. Arizona and Miami are two of the blitz-happiest teams in the league, per Pro Football Reference. However, both teams blitzed the Vikings more often than their season averages and it’s been much more effective for opposing teams than it was early on in the year.
At the beginning of the season, the Vikings’ offensive line and Cousins were one of the best in the league at avoiding sacks when pressured on blitzes. On plays where the defense blitzed and generated pressure, Cousins was only sacked on 4.5% of those dropbacks, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. Cousins’ time to throw was 2.45 seconds, just quicker than the league average.
From the Miami game on, those figures have jumped up. Cousins was sacked on 17.6% of dropbacks when he was blitzed and the defense generated pressure, the seventh-highest rate over that period. Cousins’ time to throw increased to 2.56 seconds.
With those weaknesses established, future opponents may begin to dial up pressure more frequently and several of Minnesota’s remaining opponents are frequent blitzers. The New York Giants blitz at a league-high 39% of dropbacks. The Packers and Lions blitz are both in the top 10 in blitz frequency.
Then, the other defenses on the Vikings' schedule are just really good. The Patriots are first in EPA/play on defense. The Cowboys are third and the Jets are seventh. This week’s opponent, the Buffalo Bills, is fifth.
Communication on the interior will be pivotal to managing any increased waves of blitzing, but so will effectiveness on first down, a hallmark of the Vikings in the opening month that has slipped in recent weeks.
Through the first month of the season, Minnesota was converting first downs on first down at by far the highest rate in the league, 34%. That has now dropped to 28% for the season.
Against Washington, Minnesota had its worst performance of the season on first down. These were the Vikings’ offensive outcomes of every first-down play.
- -1-yard run
- -4-yard run
- 16-yard reception
- 3-yard run
- Incomplete pass
- 2-yard run
- 4-yard run
- -1-yard run
- Incomplete pass
- Incomplete pass
- Incomplete pass
- Incomplete pass
- 3-yard screen pass
- -1-yard run
- -8-yard sack
- -3-yard reception
- Incomplete pass
- 4-yard run
- Incomplete pass
- 7-yard run
- Incomplete pass
- 2-yard run
The Vikings converted just one first down on 22 first-down plays. They had a success rate of just 18 percent.
That’s how Cousins ends up getting pressured on nearly 50% of his dropbacks and the offensive line falls apart.
If Minnesota can return to putting themselves in 2nd- and 3rd-and-short opportunities, that can go a long way in helping stabilize the offensive line. It puts the defense in a much more passive mindset and allows the Vikings to use more of their playbook that can hide the offensive line’s deficiencies. After a failed first down play, the defense has a much better opportunity to pin their ears back and attack the offensive line where they’re weak as there’s less of a guess on whether or not Minnesota will throw or pass or even use play action.
The three games Minnesota has used the least amount of play action, which inherently helps an offensive line, were against the Eagles and then the last two weeks against the Cardinals and Commanders. Against the Eagles, the Vikings trailed early and quickly had to move off of it. Against the Cardinals and Commanders, it was the lack of effectiveness on first down that forced Minnesota’s hand.
With Case Keenum potentially the Vikings’ opponent next week, another poor offensive line performance might not cost Minnesota a win, but with upcoming matchups against strong defensive lines like the Cowboys, Giants, Patriots and Jets it eventually will if the offensive line cannot improve.
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