Vikings-Dolphins: 5 things you can count on
The Minnesota Vikings will look to extend their best start since 2016 when they travel to face the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon, but this looks like anything but a predictable game.
The Dolphins are without their top two quarterbacks and given the Vikings' history with backup signal callers, Sunday's game is more than just a convenient stop to a bye-week vacation.
In a game that could add some momentum heading into a week off, here are some things you can count on.
The Vikings exorcising their demons against backup quarterbacks
The Dolphins come into Sunday's game with turmoil at quarterback. Starter Tua Tagovailoa suffered two concussions in the span of four days, prompting major changes to the NFL's protocols.
Those changes came into play last week when Teddy Bridgewater was flagged for ataxia on the first play of Miami's loss to the New York Jets, leaving Sunday's start in the hands of seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson.
For most teams, facing a third-string quarterback would be a gift from the football gods. For the Vikings, it's a major cause of anxiety.
Dating back to Mike Zimmer's tenure, the Vikings are 5-5 in their last 10 games against backup quarterbacks. While they defeated Andy Dalton earlier this year, they allowed him to throw for 236 yards and a touchdown in their Oct. 2 win over the New Orleans Saints.
Despite their history, Thompson didn't look the part of an NFL-caliber quarterback last week. He completed just 19-of-33 passes for 166 yards and threw an interception in the 40-17 loss to the Jets and even with a week of preparation, the Vikings should be able to handle the Kansas State alum.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle running past the Vikings' secondary
There is one way that the Dolphins can overcome their quarterback issues and that's by getting the ball in the hands of their top playmakers.
Hill (4.29 seconds) and Waddle (4.37 seconds) posted tremendous times in the 40-yard dash coming out of college and Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has used that to his advantage this season.
The Dolphins field-stretching receivers forced the Ravens secondary to cover a lot of ground...
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 18, 2022
Ravens defensive backs traveled a total of 6,131 yards on pass plays over the course of the game, the most by a DB group in a game since the start of last season.#MIAvsBAL | #FinsUp
Against the Baltimore Ravens' man-heavy scheme, McDaniel made their corners chase Hill and Waddle for over 6,000 yards, leading them to a 42-38 comeback victory on Sept. 18. While the Vikings play a more zone-based scheme, the Dolphins can take advantage with short passes that generate yards after the catch.
This could be a problem as Cameron Dantzler (4.64 seconds) and Chandon Sullivan (4.60 seconds) are at a major speed disadvantage. With 32-year-old Patrick Peterson also chasing down the Miami speedsters, it could be a long day for Ed Donatell's defense.
The continuation of Kirktober
Just like pumpkin spice lattes and the leaves changing colors, Kirktober is a rite of passage in the fall.
Kirk Cousins has the most wins (19), touchdowns (58) and passing yards (9,390) in October than in any other month of his career. Last week, he continued his personal tradition by completing his first 18 passes and scoring the game-winning touchdown in a 29-22 victory over the Chicago Bears.
The Dolphins are a prime matchup to keep Kirktober going as they've allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt – the fifth-highest average in the NFL. They also have a group of corners that aren't household names including Nik Needham, Keion Crossen and Kader Kohy.
Although Xavien Howard is expected to return from a groin injury, he's allowing a 149.3 passer rating this season – the fourth-highest among cornerbacks with at least 20 percent of the league lead in snaps.
This should pave the way for a big day for the Vikings' passing game and could lead Cousins to his first 300-yard game of the season.
A happy homecoming for Dalvin Cook
Cook is coming off his best game of the year, running for 94 yards and two touchdowns in last week's win over Chicago. Although he's still looking for his first 100-yard game of the year, he might get a little extra boost returning to his hometown of Miami.
The Dolphins are allowing just 4.4 yards per carry this season, but their defense has coughed up seven rushing touchdowns – tied for fifth-most in the NFL.
This could be a product of teams using their passing games for short-yardage opportunities at the goal line, but the important thing is that those chances will be there.
A former standout at Miami Central High School and Florida State, Cook also torched the Dolphins for 136 yards and two touchdowns in their last meeting in 2018. A trip to the end zone in his first professional game in Miami would be special and help the Vikings come out with a victory over the Dolphins.
The Vikings going into the bye week at 5-1
It hasn't been pretty but the Vikings have propelled themselves into contenders at this point of the season. A win over Miami would put Minnesota in control of its own destiny toward a playoff spot and with the current state of the Dolphins, there's a good chance that will happen.
Miami is a team in turmoil after the way they've handled Tagovailoa's concussion situation. McDaniel praised his team earlier in the week for getting rid of the ping pong table in the locker room "to eliminate distractions" only to have Hill explain they got rid of it so they could get a new one.
With injuries everywhere, the Dolphins are a team the Vikings should beat. While it may be closer than it should be, 5-1 is a better place than where Minnesota has been over the past several seasons and gives them a cushion heading into the bye.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Dolphins 24
