Vikings-Jets: 5 things you can count on
The Minnesota Vikings will host the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon in a battle of playoff contenders.
With Pro Football Focus's top-graded defense and an offense with several dangerous weapons, the Jets pose a much bigger threat than they were when the season began, but if the Vikings can get through them, they'll have a chance to clinch their first division title since 2017.
A battle with the Jets should be unpredictable but here are five things you can count on when the Vikings take the field.
Justin Jefferson being used all over the field
The matchup between Jefferson and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner has drawn most of the headlines coming into Sunday's game, but it's likely we won't see much of a one-on-one situation.
Kevin O'Connell has stuck to his word to use Jefferson in the same fashion that he used Cooper Kupp during his time with the Los Angeles Rams. In addition to being one of the best route runners in football, Jefferson is used all over the formation, which creates mismatches for defenses.
Justin Jefferson gained 97 of 139 receiving yards on targets outside the numbers in the @Vikings 33-26 win over the Patriots on @SNFonNBC.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 25, 2022
Jefferson currently leads the NFL in receiving yards (676) & RecYOE (+289) on targets outside the numbers this season.#NEvsMIN | #SKOL pic.twitter.com/krkx8KCNAf
With D.J. Reed Jr. and Michael Carter II also having tremendous seasons in coverage, Jefferson won't have an obvious mismatch, but it could be a better matchup than Gardner, who has played just six coverage snaps in the slot all season and has primarily played on the far side of the field.
This could disappoint fans, but if it leads to a big day for Jefferson, they'll surely take it.
More pressure for Kirk Cousins
The Vikings have gotten by on a patchwork offensive line this season and they'll need to find a way to survive again going up against a Jets defensive line that ranks seventh in PFF's pass-rush grades.
The biggest concern is on the interior of the offensive line where Quinnen Williams ranks seventh in the NFL among interior defenders with 38 quarterback pressures. Ed Ingram continues to lead all NFL offensive linemen with 44 quarterback pressures allowed and Ezra Cleveland ranks sixth with 34 pressures allowed, meaning there is a good chance Cousins will be dealing with interior pressure on Sunday.
That's not the only issue as the Jets have a stable of edge rushers including Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers and Bryce Huff that could make life miserable in the pocket. With Christian Darrisaw ruled out for Sunday's game, the Vikings will need to find a way to protect Cousins.
More mistakes from Mike White
White's second tour of the back page of New York tabloids was one of the biggest storylines from Week 12, but he'll face a more difficult matchup against the Vikings.
White threw for 313 yards and two scores in the Jets' win over the Bears, but he wasn't challenged against a Chicago defense that pressured him on just three of 30 dropbacks.
Even more concerning is what happened the last time White went off. After throwing for over 400 yards and four touchdowns in a Halloween 2021 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, White imploded two weeks later with a four-interception performance against the Buffalo Bills. In four starts last season, White threw eight interceptions with five coming from a clean pocket.
The Vikings have been passive in their coverage this season but it's only a matter of time until White starts turning the ball over. If Minnesota is ready, they'll have opportunities to cash in on those mistakes.
Another big day for an opposing wide receiver
Of course, that discounts what White was able to do well last week. PFF charted White's average time to throw at 2.38 seconds, which was the third-fastest time in Week 12. By comparison, Zach Wilson's average time to throw this season is 3.09 seconds which is 35th among 38 qualifying quarterbacks.
This is a blessing for Garrett Wilson, who will be attacking a Vikings defense that has given up huge games to No. 1 wide receivers. Although the Vikings benefitted from an early injury to Jakobi Meyers last week, they still coughed up 382 yards and two touchdowns to Mac Jones, who was last seen screaming at his offensive coordinator on Thursday night.
The return of Akayleb Evans should provide a boost in the secondary but with a quick passing game and a defense that will allow catches underneath, Wilson should be able to have another big day against the Vikings.
The Vikings' first division title in five years
Winning the NFC North is a matter of "when" not "if" for the Vikings and they'll have a chance to get the job done on Sunday.
The Vikings can clinch the division with a win over the Jets and a loss or tie from the Detroit Lions. Neither is a guarantee – especially with the Lions hosting the 4-7 Jacksonville Jaguars – but there's enough to believe Minnesota can hold up its end of the bargain.
The Jets are an improved team from where they were a year ago but the Vikings have an advantage in several areas. If they can force White into some ill-timed mistakes and find a way to crack the New York defense, they should be able to get a win in front of a home crowd at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Jets 21
