Vikings' schedule features lots of quarterbacks with questions
One of the first questions everyone tries to answer when the NFL schedule is released is whether a team has been given a difficult or favorable draw for the upcoming season. A popular approach to putting a number on the degree of difficulty is taking the average Vegas over-under win total of each opponent. If you do that with the Minnesota Vikings’ schedule, they come out with the 16th most challenging slate. But that number could swing wildly in either direction depending on whether the unproven quarterbacks on their schedule take steps forward.
The Vikings’ 2022 season features seven games against QBs who are still on their rookie contract and have yet to show that they are franchise quarterbacks.
Jalen Hurts
The first of those matchups comes with the Philadelphia Eagles and third-year quarterback Jalen Hurts in Week 2 on Monday Night Football. Hurts led Philly to a winning season in 2021 but only produced 3,144 yards passing, an 87.2 quarterback rating and the 15th best passing grade from Pro Football Focus. However, he ran for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns, pushing the Eagles to the No. 1 rushing attack in the NFL by Expected Points Added.
"He just continues to get better whether that's from Alabama to Oklahoma, or Oklahoma to his first year in the NFL, or first year to the second year," Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni said. "We just know that progression is going to continue and it's because of the person he is and that he loves football. The guy loves football and he's just willing to do the things that he needs to do to get better and that's why he does continue to get better."
But loving football doesn’t always equate to better play. In fact, even excellent quarterbacks go through ups and downs rather than consistently improving. Buffalo’s Josh Allen, widely considered an elite quarterback in the NFL, took his team deep in the playoffs yet he saw a regression from 2020 to 2021 in yards per attempt, passer rating, QBR, PFF passing grade etc.
The Eagles are banking on a particular offseason move to make Hurts better: Acquiring AJ Brown via trade with the Tennessee Titans. Since entering the league in 2019, QBs have a 118.9 rating when targeting Brown (per PFF). He averages an outrageous 6.1 yards after catch over his three seasons and graded by PFF as the seventh best receiver in the league in 2021.
Still the best laid plans don’t always work out unless the QB is up to the task. It’s notable that only one of Hurts’ wins came against a winning team last year and that club (New Orleans) did not make the postseason.
“I think the Eagles are probably going to end up drafting another quarterback next year,” Pro Football Focus analyst Ben Linsey said on the Purple Insider podcast. “Hurts is going to be fine, it’s a good offense around him but that Tampa Bay [playoff] game showed you his inability to show the whole field and make all the throws.”
The Vikings’ matchup with Hurts’ Eagles will be pivotal to the start of their season. Coming off the opener against the Green Bay Packers, they will be looking at either desperately needing a bounce-back win or an opportunity to start off blazing hot heading into a winnable game with Detroit. Since the Eagles have a strong top-to-bottom roster, the result could very well depend on whether Hurts shows early signs of progress.
Justin Fields
When the Vikings return home from their game in London against the New Orleans Saints, they take on another QB whose team is pumping up the narrative that he’ll improve with age: The Chicago Bears.
Justin Fields’ team fired head coach Matt Nagy in part because he hadn’t put the former Ohio State standout in proper position to succeed. Now the task of new coach Matt Eberflus is to develop an offensive system that will help Fields develop into a quality quarterback.
"I think he's in a great spot," Eberflus said on The Cris Collinsworth Podcast, via the Bears' team website. "He's been meeting with the offensive staff, and he feels very comfortable in this offense. This is a rhythm-and-timing offense. It's based in the West Coast system. It's going to be very quarterback-friendly for him. It's been quarterback-friendly for a lot of guys in the past."
The Bears are relying solely on the new system to boost Fields considering they did not make any major moves this offseason to improve his supporting cast. The biggest signing or draft pick the Bears made at receiver was Byron Pringle and they lost Allen Robinson to free agency. Last year Fields was also sacked 36 times on just 353 dropbacks and the club failed to add major offensive line help.
“I just don’t see that offense being much better next year,” Linsey said.
Fields’ other traditional stats didn’t offer many glimmers of hope either. Fields threw more interceptions than touchdowns and ESPN’s QBR statistic ranked him the worst quarterback in the NFL in 2021.
“It wasn’t great from an overall numbers perspective but there were positives to take away in terms of him creating and making big plays on his own, which is what you want from an elite quarterback,” Linsey said. “His big-time throw rate was up there near the top of the league, positively-graded play rate, that was up there toward the top of the league. There were a lot of negatives with that but at least you saw the high end.”
By the time the Vikings see Fields in Week 5, they will have a good sense for whether the new-coach magic has worked. If the season goes the way it’s projected by Vegas linemakers and the Vikings are battling for playoff position in the final weeks, Fields’ growth (or lack thereof) could hold the keys to a Vikings return to the postseason as they play the Bears on the road in Week 18.
Tua Tagovialoa
After their first battle with Fields, the Vikings take on another QB with a new coach: Tua Tagovialoa.
On NFL Network's Good Morning Football, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said there’s more to Tagovialoa than the world has yet seen.
"I'm really excited moving forward because the guy has some skills that I think are untapped," he said. "I think it's important that you empower the quarterback with the rest of the players around him and the scheme you bring forth. So, I think his best days are in front of him. And that's a really cool piece of the process to be part of as a coach."
While Tagovialoa’s team has won 13 of his 21 starts, he’s only produced 27 touchdown passes and averages under 200 yards passing per outing. The previous coaching regime tried to protect Tagovialoa from himself as much as they could. He had the fourth shortest depth of target of any QB in the NFL and threw only 10 “big-time” throws compared to 22 turnover-worthy plays in 2021.
The Dolphins are giving Tua both a new scheme and better players around him. They traded the farm to acquire Tyreek Hill, who has led the NFL in yards per touch twice in the last four years.
“You have concerns about Tua’s arm strength and [if he can] make all the throws but just in terms of executing the offense and getting the ball out accurately, I think he can do that,” Linsey said. “Miami has legit weapons to work with on offense.”
Hill will be paired with second-year speedster Jaylen Waddle, newly acquired Cedric Wilson and tight end Mike Gesicki, making up one of the most impressive groups of receivers in the NFL. The Dolphins also landed left tackle Terron Armstead and guard Connor Williams, putting everything they could around Tagovialoa prior to his third season.
In the worst-case scenario for Miami, they will be a challenge for the Vikings. They have won with unspectacular football from Tagovialoa before, particularly at home.
Mac Jones
On Thanksgiving Day the Vikings take on the New England Patriots and QB Mac Jones.
He was the fifth quarterback taken in the 2021 draft and easily the best in his rookie year. PFF graded Jones 12th among all QBs and he ranked in the top 10 in quickest snap-to-throw timing. Whether Jones has another gear beyond throwing for around 3,800 yards at 7.3 yards per attempt is unclear.
“The biggest thing for the Patriots building around Mac Jones is getting him a No. 1 wide receiver who can win against any type of coverage, they went out and traded for DeVante Parker who helps but he’s just sort of a guy,” Linsey said. “Jones is a guy who’s going to get the ball out accurately with timing. He had some really impressive throws…but he’s not going to put the team on his back and create outside of structure.”
Zac Wilson
In Week 13 the Vikings will match up with the former BYU star, who looked way in over his head in Year 1. He won three of 13 games, averaged just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and led the NFL in yards lost to sacks.
“Zach Wilson’s rookie season could be summed up by the fact that Mike White came in and looked more comfortable and better in that offense than Zach Wilson did,” Linsey said. “The talent is there. I’m not ready to give up on Wilson. I’m interested to see this year with what they’ve put around him on offense. It’s the exact opposite of Chicago.”
The Jets have spent high draft picks and free agent dollars on their receiving corps, picking Elijah Moore in the second round of the 2021 draft, signing former Titan Corey Davis and tight end CJ Uzomah and picking Garrett Wilson in the first round this year.
Health was a major issue for the Jets last year, resulting in the team leaders in receiving being Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios and 51 and 46 receptions.
But it won’t matter who’s playing receiver for the Jets unless Wilson can greatly improve his grasp of the offense.
“He’s got a really good early command of the offense and he’s doing a really good job in regards to that,” head coach Robert Saleh said. “There’s little things that he’s doing where you’re seeing a little more security. He’s not a rookie, so he’s being a little more vocal. He looks good. He’s getting more comfortable, obviously grasping the offense. He’s never had trouble grasping the offense, but he was a rookie so he goes through it. He’s much further ahead at this point than he was a year ago, for sure.”
Daniel Jones
The other highly-questionable QB on the Vikings’ slate has the largest sample size: Daniel Jones. Last season Jones regressed by PFF grade and dropped back significantly in terms of “big-time” throw rate. He hasn’t built on the decent start to his career in 2019 in which he threw 24 touchdowns as a rookie.
The Giants elected not to pick up Jones’ fifth-year option, making their intentions clear that they will be moving on unless something major changes. But the potential exists for major change considering Jones was playing for one of the league’s poorest coaches on the league’s most injured team last season (per ManGamesLost).
New head coach Brian Daboll, the former Bills coordinator often credited with getting the most out of Josh Allen, will try to repeat his magic with Jones.
"There's a lot of things to like about Daniel, and we'll just take it one day at a time, we'll work with him, we'll help him get better," Daboll said. "We'll help him be a better leader, we'll help him be everything… It takes a lot to raise a quarterback, if you will. He's been around the block these last three years with some different pieces. We're going to try to give him some stability and just take it from there."
Jones would need to seriously buck history to be scary for the Vikings. In 37 starts, he’s produced just 12 wins. The only QBs to start their career through 37 games with worse win percentages since 2000 are Joey Harrington, Colt McCoy, David Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert and Mike Glennon. His closest recent comparisons through 37 games in adjusted net yards per attempt are Andy Dalton and Case Keenum.
The sheer number of quarterbacks with unanswered questions adds variance to the potential outcomes. It also may end up being an opportunity for the Vikings. The re-stocked defense gets its chance take advantage of young QBs who are open to doubt and the door is wide for Vikings veteran QB Kirk Cousins to out-perform his unsettled competitors.
