Vikings vs. Lions: 5 things you can count on at U.S. Bank Stadium
The Minnesota Vikings will open a critical three-game stretch to end the season when they host the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon.
The Vikings come into Sunday's game as the six-seed in the NFC with a 7-7 record but the Lions can also clinch their first division title since 1993 with a win.
With the two teams set to square off twice in the next three weeks and potentially a third time in the Wild Card round, here are five things you can count on.
1. Detroit running the ball
There are plenty of interesting matchups between Brian Flores's defense and Ben Johnson's offense but the biggest test will be how the Lions' rushing attack fares against the Vikings' rushing defense.
The ground game has been the engine for Detroit's offense, which ranks second with 140.9 rushing yards per game this season and fourth with 4.8 yards per rushing attempt.
With the duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs thriving, it will be a challenge for the Vikings' defense which ranks fifth with 92 rushing yards per game and fourth with 3.7 rushing yards allowed per attempt.
Slowing down the Lions on the ground will be key for the Vikings if they want to pull off the upset on Sunday.
2. Brian Flores pressuring Jared Goff
Goff has become a long-term answer for the Lions at quarterback and is having a Pro Bowl-worthy season with 3,727 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. But the last time Goff faced Flores, it didn't go well.
Goff and Flores last met in Week 8 of the 2020 season when Goff was pressured 29 times as a member of the Los Angeles Rams. Although Goff put up 355 yards and a touchdown, he averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt in a 28-17 loss.
The pressure will be the biggest factor in this matchup as Goff has a 54.4 passer rating when pressured this season according to Pro Football Focus. With the Vikings blitzing on 47.7 percent of their opponent's dropbacks this season, Flores could be the reason the Vikings slow down Detroit's offense.
3. Nick Mullens struggling under pressure
The Vikings will go with Mullens at quarterback for the second straight week but the journeyman will have to have a better performance under pressure to defeat the Lions.
According to PFF, Mullens was only pressured on 31.6 percent of his dropbacks in the loss to Cincinnati but still struggled under pressure. In addition to throwing an interception, Mullens logged a turnover-worthy play percentage of 16.7 percent on 12 pressured dropbacks last week.
Mullens should have opportunities to do damage against a Lions defense that ranks 15th in passing yards allowed and 22nd in yards per attempt (6.3) this season. But with the Lions also ranking fourth in pressure rate (26.6%), Mullens will have to handle the pressure to take advantage.
4. Tough sledding for Ty Chandler
Chandler enjoyed a breakout performance, running for 132 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals last week. Although he'll remain the starter as Alexander Mattison remains out with an ankle injury, he'll have a much tougher task against Detroit's run defense.
The Lions rank eighth in the NFL this season with 95.9 rushing yards allowed per game and sixth with 3.8 rushing yards per game. With the Lions also ranking 10th in expected points added against the run this season, it's a tougher matchup than the Bengals who allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game (128.3) and second-most yards per attempt (4.7).
Vikings fans would love to see Chandler complete his star turn with another strong game, but he'll have to earn it in a difficult matchup.
5. The Lions clinching the NFC North
The Lions haven't won the division since Barry Sanders was in the backfield and Wayne Fontes was on the sidelines but this isn't the same old Lions.
Even with the annual "Winter Whiteout" game looming, the Lions have played better indoors (6-2 record, 36 points per game) than outdoors (4-2 record, 23.5 points per game). Detroit also held two 14-point leads and was a 4th-and-6 away from beating the Vikings the last time they visited U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 3 of the 2022 season in a game that still haunts Lions head coach Dan Campbell.
With the Lions likely to turn this into a track meet, the Vikings may not have the horses to keep up, allowing Detroit to celebrate its first title since the NFC Central era.
Prediction: Lions 34, Vikings 20
