What should and shouldn't be 'off the table' for the Vikings in the NFL Draft
EAGAN — Does Kevin O’Connell know how to create pre-draft smoke screens yet?
In his Tuesday press conference prior to the NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings’ new head coach was asked whether the team would be interested in drafting a quarterback to develop behind Kirk Cousins.
“I don’t think anything is really off the table, I think each draft is kind of its own entity,” O’Connell replied. “You go pick-by-pick and try to make the team as good as you possibly can.”
The idea of the Vikings drafting a quarterback in the first round seems to be off the table if you ask the mock draft universe. ESPN’s Draft Predictor tool gives Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis, the projected first two quarterbacks off the board, less than 2% chance of being selected by the Vikings with the 12th overall pick.
Some analysts think they might pick one later. CBS Sports’ seven-round mock gave the Vikings Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy with the 192nd selection.
But with GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell at the helm, there’s no predicting their first draft and it’s impossible to say whether they would pick a quarterback with any legitimate chance to be the future of the franchise. Considering Kirk Cousins will be 34 this year and is only under contract through 2023, it probably shouldn’t be as widely dismissed as the mock world believes.
Last year the 49ers selected Trey Lance despite Jimmy Garoppolo having two seasons remaining on his deal. In 2020, Jordan Love went to a Packers team that seemingly had no reason to select a QB. And you might recall the Chiefs trading up for Patrick Mahomes with Alex Smith having led a 12-4 Kansas City team the year prior.
The answer to whether QB should be off the table is an easy one: No.
If draft projections are even remotely accurate, there could be lots of QB options, including trading down and still getting their favorite quarterback prospect or waiting until the second round to see which QB falls. In 2014, the Vikings traded back into the first round to select Teddy Bridgewater with the 32nd overall pick and won the division with him at the helm in his second season.
In a “competitive rebuild,” draft picks that only consider the future and don’t impact 2022 should be kept on the table.
PFF’s Timo Riske recently looked at the surplus value of every position in the draft and — as you might expect — the best value was quarterbacks who were picked high. Surplus value is defined in this case as, “the difference between what you are expected to pay for the performance of a draft pick versus the cost of a draft pick.” Rookie deal vs. second contract, essentially.
Riske’s study found that a second-tier caliber QB on a rookie contract was worth $31 million in surplus value and in the ballpark of a 50% chance that QBs picked in the middle to end of the first round will become at least second tier. That would stand to reason with a mix of good QBs and busts taken between the middle and end of the first round in recent years.
What should be off the table is taking a mid-to-late round quarterback. The odds of success plummet to around 25% at the beginning of the second round and sink to a snowball’s chance in hell after the second round ends. We remember the outliers in Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins and forget the many Davis Webbs and Kyle Laulettas of the world. Other positions have greater chances of surplus value success beyond the second round.
Riske’s surplus value study tells us more than just that the Vikings should consider QB and that they should either take one early or not at all. It also points toward some other positions that provide surplus value even if the prospect turns out to be just OK rather than elite.
Notice that average edge rushers and receivers are still providing a good deal of surplus value while most other positions aren’t giving much unless the player is at least second tier. Cornerbacks need to be elite to give as much surplus value as a second-tier edge rusher. The gap between elite and second-tier interior defensive linemen is also significant.
That doesn’t exactly mean cornerback should be off the table — the Vikings have largely been mocked corner Derek Stingley Jr. from LSU — but it does suggest that if that corner isn’t the next Jalen Ramsey or Denzel Ward, the pick wasn’t worth its first-round price tag. There’s simply more risk of not getting bang for buck with a corner.
There are several positions that fail to create a ton of value even if the players are elite or second tier, notably tight end, running back and center. The Vikings aren’t in the market for a tight end or running back but this should take Tyler Linderbaum off the table as a potential first-round selection.
“If a team selects 12th overall and their board has a wide receiver and a center as suitable prospects for that pick, picking the wide receiver will always be the better decision, even if the team likes the center slightly more,” Riske wrote.
How about the idea of trading down in the middle rounds? The surplus value chart would suggest it depends on which position is being picked with those later picks. Centers, receivers, linebackers, interior defensive linemen and tight ends tend to produce better surplus value in the middle rounds. The positional value element may end up playing a role in that equation. Because teams are pushing quarterback, edge rusher, tackle and corner to the top of the list, some good prospects may slide down the board at the other spots. It may also speak to the difficulty of projections, particularly at corner.
As far as trading down to acquire sixth and seventh-round picks, linebacker is the only position in which players had even a one-in-four chance of becoming average. History bears this out with the Vikings as the vast majority of Rick Spielman’s late-round darts didn’t hit the bullseye.
There are other parts of the draft that are very hard to pin down when it comes to things being “off the table.” Would this team want to upset a delicate locker room by taking players with any character concerns? It would seem that rebuilding their culture is a top priority. However, character concerns in college don’t always end up being problematic in the NFL.
What about system fits? Scouts will tell you that coaches should find uses for talented players, while coaches will say that players need to fit specifications. During the last regime, we had a basic understanding of the types of players who wouldn’t be fits in the Mike Zimmer defense. It’s more difficult to say what Ed Donatell will be looking for. It would make sense that 3-4 outside linebacker types are suddenly back in play.
It’s plausible that players who don’t fit athletic specs will be eliminated now more than in the Spielman/Zimmer era. The athletic profiles of recent picks were all over the map, from Justin Jefferson’s 97th percentile Relative Athletic Score to Cam Dantzler’s 31st percentile Combine results. Could we see athletic freaks only? And how will the Vikings factor players skipping certain drills to avoid bad scores? Would they spend middle-round picks on lesser athletes who can play ball or will they shoot for upside only?
We won’t be able to draw all of the conclusions about the Adofo-Mensah draft strategy and what’s on or off the table just by next weekend’s results but we will get the most insight yet into their thinking based on the decisions they make during the draft. Making the right calls on what to take off the table might be the best way they can avoid some of the draft errors of the past.
More Vikings from Bring Me The Sports and Purple Insider
Ex-GM Rick Spielman is a fan of QB Malik Willis
Who will be available when the Vikings are on the clock?
Are any of the QBs in the draft worth taking?
Should the Vikings be all in on Derek Stingley Jr.?
The Vikings can now take the best available player in the draft
