Which players will make or break the Vikings' offense?
The Minnesota Vikings are expecting to take steps forward on offense under new head coach Kevin O'Connell but while his coaching prowess may give them some advantages they haven't had in the past, it will ultimately be the players who determine what happens in 2022.
Which players will swing the production one way or the other? Let's have a look...
Adam Thielen
Justin Jefferson has firmly planted himself amongst the best and most consistent wide receivers in the league. The time of asking or envisioning Thielen as a No. 1 WR is over, at least in Minnesota. But heading into 2022, there should be questions on how long he can hold up as a high-end No. 2.
Just look at his last five years.
In 2017 and 2018, Thielen did not miss a regular-season game. He made second-team All-Pro in ‘17 and was selected for the Pro Bowl both years. He was targeted nearly 300 times and caught 205 passes for 2,649 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Since then, he missed six games in 2019, one in 2020 and four in 2021. He’s caught more than 70 passes only once and hasn’t eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark as his target share has been cut by about a third. Still, in these last two seasons, he has been a quality wide receiver, especially in the red zone. Matthew Coller laid it out last week, Over the past two seasons, Cousins has found Thielen in the end zone 24 times, only trailing Davante Adams, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill for the most total touchdowns in the NFL between 2020 and 2021. Out of the 24 TDs, 20 of them have come in the red zone, which ranks only behind Adams for tops in the league.
But how long is that sustainable? Thielen turns 32 a few weeks before the start of the regular season. Here’s the list of active wide receivers heading into last season that were 32 (excluding Matthew Slater and Andre Roberts, who are listed as WRs but play strictly on special teams): Mohamed Sanu, Julio Jones, Travis Benjamin, T.Y. Hilton, Cole Beasley, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Chris Hogan, DeSean Jackson, Danny Amendola.
Beasley was the only one to catch more than 55 passes last season. Seven of the 11 missed at least seven games. Green is the only one that is still on the same team from a year ago. Beasley, Sanders, Hilton, Jones, Brown, Jackson, Sanu and Amendola are all currently free agents.
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While Thielen has appeared to age better than most, particularly when you look at his red-zone ability, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Thielen’s long-term viability.
If Thielen is out for any extended period of time or is just less effective, that’s a big problem in 2021. Because while KJ Osborn was a welcome surprise last season, shifting him to the No. 2 role is a big ask. In the four weeks Thielen was out, Osborn caught just 10 of his 21 targets and averaged 43.75 receiving yards per game. He did, however, catch three touchdowns.
That also means moving up Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Bisi Johnson or Albert Wilson to the No. 3 spot. Suddenly, the Vikings’ dynamic wide receiver group appears much less dynamic. Thus, the offense hinges on Thielen maintaining his red-zone acumen and staying healthy. They need him to age like Larry Fitzgerald rather than Julio Jones.
Christian Darrisaw
After missing the first four games of the season with an injury, Darrisaw came in and did about as good as you can expect for a rookie offensive tackle in 2021. He had a 70 PFF grade or higher in five of his six final games and had several individual games with outstanding run blocking and pass blocking grades.
So can he build on that? Well, I like to look back at recent history to give us an idea. Here’s the list of first-round offensive tackles between 2016-2020 and their PFF grades in the first two seasons.
- Christian Darrisaw: 1st year PFF Grade: 71.9 / 2nd year PFF Grade: ?
- Andrew Thomas: 62.4 / 78.9
- Jedrick Wills: 62.6 / 66.1
- Mekhi Becton: 74.4 / 67.3 (played 48 snaps)
- Tristan Wirfs: 84.1 / 84.3
- Austin Jackson: 52.3 / 49.9
- Andre Dillard: 59.7 / N/A (didn’t play a snap)
- Tytus Howard: 59.4 / 62.1
- Kaleb McGary: 53.0 / 64.3
- Mike McGlinchey: 74.8 / 70.6
- Kolton Miller: 49.6 / 65.3
- Isaiah Wynn: N/A (didn’t play a snap) / 70.7
- Garrett Bolles: 72.9 / 72.8
- Ryan Ramczyk: 81.4 / 82.4
- Ronnie Stanley: 74.8 / 75.1
- Jack Conklin: 80.6 / 72.4
- Laremy Tunsil: 65.8 / 60.0
- Taylor Decker: 81.9 / 65.3
I was expecting some wild ups and downs with these grades, but the results paint an encouraging picture of Darrisaw’s development. There really aren't many previous scenarios in which an offensive tackle falls off after a solid start to their career. The list is Taylor Decker and then pretty much nobody else. Most stayed right where they were in year two. And while 71.9 isn’t the grade of an above-average tackle, Darrisaw’s second-half finish illustrates he was trending in the right direction, which if done over a full season, would result in a much higher grade.
Still, Darrisaw played in a limited number of games, accruing fewer than 700 snaps. And the Vikings had an up-close and personal view of a promising tackle that flamed out in Matt Kalil. His importance to the Vikings’ success is undeniable. There are already question marks along the offensive line with Garrett Bradbury and whoever wins the right guard position. To have a struggling tackle too would likely sink the entire offensive line.
But even if Darrisaw’s play levels out and remains around a 71 PFF grade all year, that level of play is more than sufficient to avoid being the chink in the armor. And a significant jump from Darrisaw could cover up some of Ezra Cleveland’s deficiencies and take the pressure off the rest of the offensive line.
Kirk Cousins - honorable mention
It’s difficult to have this conversation and not discuss the quarterback, even with a quarterback like Cousins who has been remarkably steady season-to-season, even if he can be volatile game-to-game.
But, like Thielen, Cousins is beginning to enter an age range that is increasingly sparse for quarterbacks.
Of the active starting quarterbacks in the league, Kirk Cousins is younger than only Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. And while quarterbacks will likely continue to play later and later into their 30s, the ones that truly stick and play at a high level are the all-time greats. Even to the staunchest Cousins defenders, he isn’t an all-time great. And while Brady, Rodgers, Manning and others can continue to be successful once they’ve lost a step, it remains to be seen how successful Cousins will be when his athletic ability starts to wane.
Yet the numbers certainly don’t show a drop is coming. He’s had his best seasons, both by traditional metrics and PFF grade, in the last three years.
It isn’t a grand statement to say the Vikings will go as far as Cousins can take them. Such is true for every team across the NFL, but with an offensive head coach at the helm, a strong core of weapons and an improved offensive line, all the excuses for Cousins are gone. More than O’Connell, Thielen, Darrisaw or any other player, if Cousins rises to the occasion, the Vikings can be successful. If he shows signs of regression, 2023 will be full of change.
