Which rebuilding NFC North teams will be dangerous to the Vikings in the future?
WATCHING DAYS OF THUNDER — If you think if the NFL as a stock car race, there are teams that are running at the front of the pack who can only be taken down by a crash in the final laps. There are teams that are running on low fuel and worn tires but they are going for broke anyway. There are teams that are just going around in circles in the middle of the pack, keeping their sponsors happy and making sure the car doesn’t need too many repairs. There are teams who are in the pits putting on fresh tires and filling up the tank and looking for the next Cole Trickle to drive the car with hopes of someday racing up front.
Over the past four years, the Minnesota Vikings have been the team that’s going for broke. While they have ended up in the middle, they poured resources into the car like they were a front runner but always ended up blowing a tire down the stretch or smashing into the wall. This year, the have changed crew chiefs and tweaked the spoilers but haven’t moved themselves to the pole position prior to the start of 2022.
In an alternate universe, they could have been the team in the pits.
Had the Vikings changed quarterbacks and sent other expensive veteran players packing, the car would have gotten through the race with a few entertaining moments in 2022 but they wouldn’t have legitimately competed to be in the lead at the checkered flag. However, they would have refreshed a car that has been held together with duct tape and rusty bolts over the past few seasons and had a chance to find their driver and slingshot toward the front in 2023.
Meanwhile two NFC North teams chose to bring their cars into the garage over the last two offseasons: The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions.
How do their futures compare to the Vikings? Will the Vikings still be wobbling around on melted tires while the spruced up cars pass them in the years to come or will these franchise resets prove to do more harm than good?
Let’s start with the Bears. The last time Chicago had a really good driver was before power steering was invented so they are in the position of desperately hoping that Justin Fields turns out.
The Bears did something clever in sending Khalil Mack packing and fixing their salary cap situation: They gave themselves an out if Fields isn’t good. That comes in the form of a potentially very high draft pick. If Fields doesn’t clear the bar of being excellent this season, the Bears are going to end up drafting at the top, where there are expected to be a bevy of top potential quarterbacks. While it would seem premature to move on from a QB after two seasons, the Bears changing general managers this offseason gave Ryan Poles every opportunity to say “not my quarterback” and move on should he please.
The problem with needing to draft another quarterback is that the Bears won’t be able to address another position in an effort to stack their roster around the QB on a rookie contract. If Fields succeeds despite a car that was built from the scrap heap, that means the Bears can accelerate their rebuild by spending big in free agency next offseason and taking a run at being the next Cincinnati Bengals. If not, it’s going to take a lot more work.
More of the Vikings’ fate than anyone would want to admit is resting on Fields’ future. If he turns into the next Joe Burrow in 2022, the Vikings won’t be the NFC North team that appears in line to take the throne from the Packers when Aaron Rodgers ultimately walks away to play ukulele and sell strange herbs online. By the start of 2023, the Vikings will either have a 35-year-old Kirk Cousins or a rookie QB who is trying to track down Fields from the back of the pack. But if Fields falters, the Vikings have a much better chance to either rule the roost with Cousins or have their next quarterback ready.
That’s if the Lions don’t get there first. The Lions are like a NASCAR team that had one sponsor and it was some random internet scammer. They had the driver to improve their position in past years but rarely gave him any type of quality car to drive. Now they’ve booted the online scam and found a major sponsor who is willing to pour (draft) capital into the vehicle and make it spiffy for the first time since Wayne Fontes was wearing a Starter jacket inside the Silverdome.
In 2021, Detroit drafted a tackle who showed signs of being excellent in the future and a wide receiver who caught 90 passes. In 2022, they picked an edge rusher No. 2 overall and traded up for the receiver with the biggest upside. Four top picks, four premium positions.
The Lions won’t be winning Daytona this year, though have the skeleton of something that could eventually run at the front. But the driver remains in question. Detroit can move on from Jared Goff after this season. Cutting him prior to 2023 would create $20 million in cap space and only carry $10 million in dead cap, per OverTheCap.com. That opens the door to the Lions drafting a quarterback in 2023 and plopping him down in the driver’s seat of a speed demon.
The question is whether the Lions would still draft another QB if Goff leads them back into the playoff race this year. Would they continue to roll with the former No. 1 overall pick, who will cost $30 million in 2023? Or would they pull an Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes and let Goff play 2023 before deciding whether to move on?
If Detroit settles on Goff, the Vikings aren’t safe. If the Vikings eventually need to rebuild in 2023 or 2024, the Lions will be years ahead of them in stacking talent. Goff has also proven that he can take a team to the Super Bowl under perfect circumstances — he’s not Joey Harrington, folks.
The bottom line on the Bears and Lions is that there are potholes and oil slicks that could keep both squads stuck in 43rd place but for the first time in a long time, there also exists a world where either team or both could start rising up the ranks by as early as next season.
The way to stave both of them off is to win the NFC North this year. If the Vikings’ plan to sign and keep veterans this offseason pays off, they won’t look like the club with the wobbly wheels. They will be considered a front runner who can ride with the best of the NFC for at least the next two seasons. But if they don’ take advantage of their mature roster this year, they are going to see somebody in the rearview mirror.
