Why are the Vikings so good in the fourth quarter?
The 2022 Minnesota Vikings have been the clutchiest clutch team in the NFL.
They have eight one-score wins and six fourth-quarter comebacks and rank in the top six defensively in turnover percentage, touchdowns allowed and sacks in the fourth quarter. They lead the NFL in average points scored in the fourth quarter per game (8.5) and allow the fourth fewest points per game in the fourth quarter (3.9).
When we look even closer into the numbers, we see that they are crushing the fourth quarter on a per-play basis, ranking as the fourth best passing offense in Expected Points Added and No. 2 overall defense in the final stanza of games this year.
In the first three quarters, things aren’t as shiny. The Vikings are 21st in yards per play on offense, 23rd in offensive EPA, 26th in touchdowns allowed on defense and 28th in defensive EPA.
What gives? Why has Kevin O’Connell’s team been able to flip a switch and turn into the 2009 Vikings when they need it most? Can it continue?
To answer that question, we turn to analytics expert Tej Seth of PFF and the Take The Pointz podcast.
What should we make of the Vikings’ fourth-quarter excellence?
“When you go down to a split like that where it’s fourth quarter or late downs, very high leverage situations you expect some continuation but you also expect regression to the mean in those situations because it’s a lot smaller sample size than the entire sample size, which is usually more stable,” Seth said. “These are very high leverage situations where EPA or Win Probability Added can get swung a lot depending on a couple plays.”
That makes sense when you think about how some of the games have played out. In Buffalo the Vikings needed a one-handed grab by Justin Jefferson and a Josh Allen fumble at the goal line. Both of those things pushed their numbers up but would be pretty hard to repeat on a weekly basis.
This isn’t exactly new for the passing game though. They were ninth last year, sixth in 2020 and fifth in 2019 in fourth quarter EPA per pass play. It doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility that Kirk Cousins could improve from there under a new head coach.
“It seems like he looks more comfortable in the end-of-game situations,” Seth said.
From the time he arrived, O’Connell has made supporting Cousins a top priority. Coach and quarterback communicate throughout games, which may assist in making adjustments. After the Vikings’ win against the Patriots, O’Connell said that he told Cousins in his headset to look for a certain read that led to Adam Thielen’s open touchdown.
“I’ve just sensed since April I think Kevin has gone out of his way at times to empower me and I don’t know if that’s just a remark he’ll make in a team meeting of offensive meeting, but he’s just been intentional about trying to do that,” Cousins said on Wednesday. “It helps a lot as the quarterback to feel that and I appreciate that. He doesn’t have to do that and I feel like he’s gone out of his way to do that and I think it helps.”
Seth says that staving off fourth quarter regression on offense could also be about personnel, in particular new tight end TJ Hockenson.
“Hockenson getting there has changed the mentality from O’Connell and Cousins with how aggressive they can be,” Seth said. “Pre-Hockenson Cousins had a 6.1 average depth of target, which was 35th of 36 quarterbacks. Post-Hockenson trade he’s up to 8.1 ADoT, which is 12th in the league right now…You have someone who can run intermediate routes where it’s between 10-15 yards downfield, that means Jefferson can be the deeper receiver and it changes the way defenses have to play Jefferson. Cousins can be more aggressive because defenses have to respect Jefferson’s increased frequency of going deep.”
Surprisingly Jefferson has more yards in the first and second quarters than in the fourth this season, so his target share could also increase and help carry on the late-game success.
Seth is more skeptical about the Vikings’ defense than the offense when it comes to continuing the clutch success.
“Given everything we know about how defense fluctuates from week to week, year to year, and how players in coverage are unstable, I think I’d be more worried about the Vikings defense in the fourth quarter collapsing,” he said.
The Vikings’ defense likely needs to improve overall. Is there anything they’re doing in the fourth quarter that they can copy earlier in games? Apparently not. Seth says the underlying data does not indicate that they are playing different schematically in the fourth quarter. Ed Donatell’s blitz percentages and coverage distributions are nearly identical in the first three quarters as during crunch time.
It’s possible that Donatell’s defense, which blitzes the fourth least in the NFL per Pro-Football Reference and plays a high rate of two-deep coverages, might be built better for slowing down desperate opponents who need big plays at the ends of games.
When we look closer at the individual clutch plays game by game, there is also a theme. Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter sacks. Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith interceptions. Superstars are superstars for a reason, right? Can big-time players keep making big-time plays week after week?
“It’s all high variance right now,” Seth said.
