Will the Vikings let results vs. Bears dictate deadline approach?
Four years ago the 1-5 Minnesota Vikings traded away pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue following an ugly loss to the Atlanta Falcons. It seemed inevitable that they would move everything else that wasn’t nailed down before the trade deadline but a 28-22 victory in Green Bay altered their course. They decided that the upcoming schedule gave them opportunities to get back in the playoff race and held off making any other moves. By the end of Week 13 they were a .500 team. Three losses later, they had regrets.
The present 1-4 Vikings are heading to Chicago with a chance to win a division game and then make a long-shot case for themselves to not be sellers at the trade deadline. With upcoming games after this week against San Francisco and Green Bay, it’s possible they could get to 3-5 and then face the Falcons, Saints, Broncos, Bears and Raiders with good chances to win all of those games. If three or four of those games go right the Vikings would be looking at a 6-7 or 7-6 record by the time they hit the difficult final stretch against Cincinnati, Detroit twice and Green Bay.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
But that route could end up leading to history repeating itself. Depending on where you look, the Vikings’ playoff odds are somewhere between 8-15%. However those numbers are calculated, it’s unlikely that they included the NFL’s best receiver Justin Jefferson going on injured reserve on Monday. Even if the Vikings’ fumbling problems completely disappeared it is difficult to project them beating middling clubs consistently without the player who tilts the odds in their direction most.
There is also the fact that making the playoffs and losing in the first round doesn’t come along with rings or trophies. Per the analytics company SumerSports, the Vikings have a 0.1% chance to win the Super Bowl.
The Vikings can make a case for the seventh seed when looking at fellow contenders for the final playoff spots like the Packers, Rams, Saints, Falcons and Commanders but it’s hard to argue that they are a few bounces away from running with the 49ers, Eagles, Lions and Cowboys.
From the perspective of head coach Kevin O’Connell and everyone in the locker room, there is always reason to fight on until the final bell rings. From the perspective of the front office, ownership and future of the franchise, moving on from any player who isn’t part of the future makes sense.
Why wait?
In 2020 there was some argument not to have a fire sale. The upcoming opponents weren’t 3-2 clubs like the Falcons and Saints, they were terrible teams. After the win against Green Bay the Vikings went up against the Lions, who finished 5-11, 8-8 Bears, Andy Dalton Cowboys, 5-11 Panthers and 1-15 Jaguars.
In 2020, it’s possible the Vikings could have nabbed a draft pick for Kyle Rudolph or Riley Reiff but there wasn’t an expectation that they would get much in return. That’s very different from this year where Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith and KJ Osborn could legitimately add up to a bevy of draft picks that could play a role in rebuilding the roster and/or potentially trading up for a quarterback.
Those managing the 2020 Vikings treated the club like it was going to compete for a Super Bowl, even if the exits of a few key defensive players could have pointed us toward growing pains. They extended Cousins before that season and then dealt a second-round pick for Ngakoue as a rental. But plans went sideways when Danielle Hunter suffered a neck injury, NT Michael Pierce elected not to play due to COVID concerns and none of the young cornerbacks rose to the occasion.
This year’s team is coming off an offseason in which they clearly valued the future. They did not extend Cousins and avoided signings that would hurt them in the future and moved on from players who weren’t expected to be part of the plan in 2024. The expectation was that they would be more competitive than a 1-4 start but oddsmakers gave the Vikings a better chance to miss the playoffs than make them entering the season. With a harder schedule and major inexperience on defense, being in sell mode at the deadline was not completely out of the question.
Moving on from players who aren’t expected to remain on the team next year would be thematic, if anything.
While it makes sense by the numbers to send out a “FOR SALE” email to the other general managers before they fly to Chicago, practically speaking the Vikings may likely have to wait a few more weeks to see if they can win at Soldier Field and then upset San Francisco in order to be completely sure that they didn’t bail too early.
There are other considerations than just value vs. return. The Vikings would like Jefferson to sign a big contract extension next year. Does that become more tricky if the team has just gone 5-12? Would selling early cause conflict between the locker room and coaching staff and the front office?
But if they leave the door open to changing course based on the next few weeks the possibility of missing out on value to chase a playoff ghost increases. And so does the chance of an improbable run to the playoffs, I suppose.
