Will the Wild's defense continue to fuel their success?
The Minnesota Wild are coming into this season with high expectations. While many just want them to win a playoff series, the Wild are committed to doing it in their own way and are focused on their goaltending and defense to get them over the hump.
But the Wild come into this season with several questions along the blue line and in goal after a year where the back end fueled a run to the playoffs, it's fair to wonder whether the group will have the same effect during the 2023-24 season.
To understand this, you have to look at how good the Wild's defense was one year ago. Minnesota ranked 6th with 2.67 goals allowed per game last season and it offset a lineup that ranked 23rd with 2.91 goals scored per game.
The defense's biggest impact may have been felt during the Wild's 14-game point streak last February. During that streak, Minnesota's defense took over, allowing 1.85 goals against per game and allowing the Wild to climb the Central Division standings.
But an underrated aspect of that streak was the struggles of the offense. Minnesota scored three goals per game during the streak but if we take out the last three games against non-playoff teams San Jose, Arizona and St. Louis, the Wild averaged just 2.27 goals over the first 11 games of that streak.
Even more mind-boggling? Kirill Kaprizov scored eight of the 25 goals during the first 11 games of the streak, accounting for 32 percent of the Wild's offensive production
With a reliance on their defense, the Wild made their way to the playoffs. But there are a few variables that could shake things up heading into this year.
The Wild lost John Klingberg and Matt Dumba in free agency but both departures were expected due to the Wild's salary cap situation and their performance on the ice. Minnesota got a boost during the playoffs with the addition of former Gopher captain Brock Faber but the 21-year-old will be thrust into a key role alongside Jonas Brodin thanks to the injury Spurgeon suffered in the preseason.
With Spurgeon currently "week-to-week," the Wild are left scrambling as they look to fill in the back half of their lineup.
One player who could receive a bigger role is Calen Addison, but it's unclear if the Wild trust the 23-year-old. Addison collected 18 power play assists in 62 games last season but was inconsistent defensively, registering a -17 plus/minus rating.
The defensive woes sent Addison to the press box when Klingberg was acquired at the deadline but the Wild need Addison to take a step forward in the wake of Spurgeon's injury.
The Wild also have veterans Jon Merill and Alex Goligoski to fill in but Merrill was also inconsistent with a -2 plus/minus rating in 72 games while Goligoski registered a -9 plus/minus rating in 46 games a year ago.
While the Wild could simply increase the playing of their top two pairings, the third line remains a mystery and could open the door for some of their players currently at Iowa. But as we've seen with Addison and the Wild's commitment to veterans elsewhere on the roster, Bill Guerin and Dean Evason haven't been keen on playing guys before they're ready (See: Rossi, Marco.)
With a combination of unstable veterans and inconsistent youngsters on the blue line, it could put more pressure on Filp Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury to carry the Wild.
The dynamic between the two goaltenders has changed from a year ago as Gustavsson broke out with a 22-9-7 record and a 2.10 goals against average last season and Fleury was a solid veteran, going 24-16-4 with a 2.85 goals against average.
The Wild placed their faith in Gustavsson with a contract extension this summer but the move comes with some risk as the 25-year-old has appeared in just 66 games since debuting with the Ottawa Senators during the 2020-21 season.
While Gustavsson could be on his way to a solid career, he could also be similar to Alex Nedeljikovic, who led the league in save percentage (.932) and goals against average (1.90) with the Carolina Hurricanes during the 2020-21 season and signed a two-year, $6 million contract after he was traded to the Detroit Red Wings the following summer.
In the two seasons since his breakout, Nedeljkovic has a 25-31-11 record with a 3.35 GAA and .900 save percentage in 74 games and was placed on waivers by the Red Wings last January before signing a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins this summer.
While it's an extreme scenario, it's a reminder that life can come at you fast if you're a goaltender – especially one like Gustavsson, who has a limited track record in the NHL but a three-year, $11.25 million contract to show for it.
With Fleury winding down a Hall of Fame career and top prospect Jesper Wallstedt likely needing one more full season in the AHL, the goaltending could take a step back which could leave the Wild in a pinch.
In a perfect world, the pieces would mesh quickly and Spurgeon will return to help Minnesota have a successful year. But with an inconsistent offense, the Wild will need to lean on their defense in order to make a return (and a deep run) to the playoffs.
