Alabama vs. Kansas State picks, predictions: Sugar Bowl odds, spread, lines

Picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl on the college football bowl schedule with updated betting lines

Motivation might not exactly be equal between Alabama and Kansas State when they face off in the Sugar Bowl when the college football New Year's Six bowl schedule kicks off.

Alabama expects to win the national championship every season, but this year finds the school out of the College Football Playoff following a two-loss campaign.

Kansas State, meanwhile, just knocked off a previously undefeated TCU team to claim the Big 12 Championship and wants to add another key victory to its resume under head coach Chris Klieman. 

But the Crimson Tide received some welcome news when both quarterback Bryce Young and linebacker Will Anderson announced they will play in the game, resulting in the point spread nearly doubling in Alabama's favor at most books.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State picks, predictions

Alabama vs. Kansas State picks, predictions for 2022 Sugar Bowl

Alabama prediction: The computer models all favor the Crimson Tide, who have the comfortable 73.1 percent chance to win the game outright and avoid a third loss to close out the season.

Kansas State prediction: That leaves the Big 12 champion Wildcats with the 26.9 percent edge to pull off the upset, according to the projections.

Point spread: Alabama comes into the game as 7 point favorites against Kansas State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: 56 | Over -118 | Under -110

Moneyline: Alabama -333 | Kansas State +220

Spread consensus pick: Alabama -7

Score prediction: Team Rankings projects that Alabama will defeat Kansas State by a score of 31.6 to 24.4 (Alabama -7).

How to watch: The game is set for Sat., Dec. 31 at 12 p.m. Eastern time on the main ESPN network and streams on fuboTV (Try for free).

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College Football Playoff top 25 rankings

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. Tennessee
7. Clemson
8. Utah
9. Kansas State
10. USC
11. Penn State
12. Washington
13. Florida State
14. Oregon State
15. Oregon
16. Tulane
17. LSU
18. UCLA
19. South Carolina
20. Texas
21. Notre Dame
22. Mississippi State
23. NC State
24. Troy
25. UTSA

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