Alabama vs. Kentucky score prediction by college football computer model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. Kentucky in this Week 11 college football game

SEC cross-divisional rivals meet up in the Commonwealth this weekend between one team looking to avoid falling under .500 in conference play and another looking to take a step towards clinching a spot in the league's championship game, as Kentucky welcomes No. 8 Alabama in college football's Week 11 action on Saturday.

• Crimson Tide can clinch SEC West with a win here or an Ole Miss loss
• Bama took down LSU in a statement game last Saturday, is 6-0 in SEC play
• Still questions around offensive consistency, but Alabama's defense is 18th nationally in scoring
• UK has lost three of the last four, all to East leaders UGA, Mizzou, Vols
• Wildcats are 86th in passing and 87th in rushing
• Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model to forecast the game

Alabama vs. Kentucky score prediction

The simulations favor the Crimson Tide to stay perfect in conference play this week.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Kentucky by a projected score of 29 to 21 and to win the game by an estimated 7.7 points.

The model gives the Tide a 67 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-271-13 (49.2%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Alabama is a 10.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 47.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -450 and for UK at +300.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Kentucky +10.5
• Bama on the ML at -450
• Bet over 47.5 (-120)

Computer prediction

Most other analytic models also project Alabama will defeat Kentucky.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index predicts Alabama will win the game in 85.8 percent of its simulations, or 17,160 of its total projections.

Kentucky wins out in the remaining 14.2 percent of sims, or 2,840 of the predictions.

By taking the difference between each team's scoring margin per game, the computer predicts that Alabama will beat Kentucky by 17.4 points, enough to cover the line.

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Alabama at Kentucky game time

When: Sat., Nov. 11
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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