Alabama vs. Mississippi State game prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Alabama and Mississippi State meet in this Week 5 college football game, with our updated predictions

For the second straight week, a division contender comes to Starkville to play among the cowbells as No. 12 Alabama goes on the road against 2-2, unranked Mississippi State in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

After taking a bad loss to LSU at home and dropping a 37-30 decision at South Carolina, the Bulldogs return home facing a must-win of sorts, already sitting in the SEC West basement at 0-2 in conference play. 

Alabama recovered from a loss to Texas and a sloppy win over USF with a comeback victory over Ole Miss last weekend, holding the Rebels to 10 points in its first SEC game and hoping to stay perfect in the league looking ahead to a rematch with LSU at home in the next few weeks.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as Alabama and Mississippi State square off along with our latest Week 5 game predictions.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State preview, prediction

Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 8 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Alabama vs. MSU game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Alabama -14.5
Total: 46.5 points
Moneyline: Tide -901 | MSU +500
FPI pick: Alabama 87.6% to win

What to watch for

1. Third down battle. Mississippi State is last in the SEC in third down conversion success offensively, and is just 120th nationally, moving the chains on only 32.7 percent of chances. Alabama is top 30 nationally when defending the third down, allowing opponents to convert on just 32.3 percent of opportunities. The Bulldogs need to cash in on these chances, or it'll be a long night.

2. Jalen Milroe vs. MSU's secondary. A week ago against Ole Miss, the Alabama quarterback was good for 81 percent of his passing attempts for 225 yards. And while he's not working with the caliber of receiver Bama has turned out the last few years, he should find lanes against a Bulldog pass defense that has struggled against competent passers, allowing 86% completion and 655 yards the last 2 games. It ranks 120th nationally surrendering 280 air yards per game, 11.43 yards per completion, and 8.48 yards per attempt. Alabama is 29th in FBS with 14.02 yards per pass completion in four games.

3. Injury watch. Mississippi State running back Jo'Quavious Marks is dealing with a leg injury sustained in last week's game. The senior is the No. 2 back in the SEC with 352 total yards this season and four touchdown carries. If he can't go, Jeffery Pittman, who scored the game-winner against Arizona, or freshman Seth Davis will go in Marks' place. If the run game struggles, MSU has shown it's willing to get back to an Air Raid-like approach like it did last week, when Will Rogers posted 487 yards in a loss.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State prediction

The Bulldogs play a decent run defense, which might frustrate Alabama's already-shaky front line protections early in the game, and Milroe will hand the ball over once or twice and absorb some negative plays, but overall the Tide should have the decided advantage when throwing the ball at MSU's second-level tacklers and the front seven has the bodies to frustrate Rogers' timing in the pocket.

College Football HQ picks...

• Alabama wins 38-13
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

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