Alabama vs. Tennessee expert game picks, predictions

Expert prediction for Alabama vs. Tennessee by the college football analytic model that picks game winners

As we approach the third Saturday of October, that means one thing: the annual renewal of hostilities between Alabama and Tennessee, one of college football's grandest rivalries, and one coming off an explosive upset just one year ago.

Alabama is still the boss of the SEC West through the first half of the season, sitting at 4-0 in SEC play and hoping it's made enough improvements at the line of scrimmage to protect an offense that is getting more aggressive moving the ball downfield.

Tennessee won this game a year ago in a statement upset, but lost the principal contributors of its then-No. 1 ranked offense, although the Vols are running the ball with authority and play strong defense in the front seven, as well.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Alabama vs. Tennessee picks, predictions

Alabama vs. Tennessee picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Alabama odds: The computers project the Crimson Tide will stay undefeated, expected to win this game with 76.3 percent likelihood, meaning it came out the winner in 15,260 of the 20,000 simulations it uses to pick game winners.

Tennessee odds: Conversely, the Volunteers come out the winner in the remaining 23.7 percent of simulations, or the other 4,740 of the predictions.

Point spread: Alabama is the 9 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 47 points for the game.

Alabama predictions: Down 4 spots despite beating Arkansas last week, the index slots the Tide at No. 7 nationally, projecting it to be 23.1 points better than an average opponent, and forecasts it will win 10.6 games this season.

Tennessee predictions: The Vols rank 16th on the index's 133 team rankings, estimated to be 15.5 points better than opponents, and forecasted to win 8.9 games.

Score prediction? By taking the index's predictions by how much each team is expected to win by against "average opponents," and taking the difference between those two numbers, the computers project that Alabama will win by 7.6 points, or in rounding up, by 8 points.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Tennessee at Alabama schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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