Alabama vs. Texas picks, predictions: Week 2 college football computer picks, betting lines, odds

Expert game picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Texas as the Week 2 college football schedule brings us a major SEC vs. Big 12 rematch from last year

One of the marquee matchups of the early season is set for this weekend as Alabama welcomes Texas to Bryant-Denny Stadium in what should be one of the most raucous atmospheres this season as the Crimson Tide and Longhorns square off in a rematch of last season's meeting on Saturday in college football's Week 2 action.

A year ago, these blue-blood programs met on the Forty Acres and kept it close the whole day before Bryce Young's heroics late in the game put Alabama in position to kick the winning field goal and come out of Austin with a 1-point victory.

Now, the Longhorns are angling for revenge in one of the toughest road games you can play, going against a Tide squad with quarterback Quinn Ewers back under center hoping he can stay healthy this time. A year ago, Ewers was finding lanes against Alabama's secondary before leaving the game early with a shoulder injury after being driven into the turf by defender Dallas Turner.

Jalen Milroe steps in at quarterback in place of Young this season for Alabama following a solid 2023 debut in which the dual-threat player scored five all-purpose touchdowns in a 56-7 win over MTSU, although insiders consider the QB question to still be in limbo long-term.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Alabama vs. Texas picks, predictions

Alabama vs. Texas picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Alabama predictions: The index is siding strongly with the Crimson Tide, which has the 81.0 percent chance to defend home field and win the game outright, per the model that picks winners by simulating games 20,000 times.

Texas predictions: Conversely, the Longhorns have the narrow 19.0 percent chance to pull off the upset on the road, according to the index.

Point spread: Alabama comes into the game as 7.5 point favorites against Texas, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. Track it live

Total: 56.5 points

Moneyline: UA -250 | UT +188

Alabama projections: The index rates the Crimson Tide as the No. 1 team in the nation on the latest 133 college football rankings owing to its projected plus-30.2 point per game margin against an average opponent. Alabama is estimated to win 11.2 games this season, is favored to win the SEC at 73.7 percent, above Georgia, and has the 26.8 percent shot to win the national championship.

Texas projections: The Longhorns place No. 10 overall and second in the Big 12 according to the FPI rankings, expected to be 19.7 points better than an average opponent, estimated to win 9.5 games, and projected to make the College Football Playoff with a 16.2 percent likelihood.

Alabama vs. Texas schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 9
Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV Try for free

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia (58)
2. Michigan (2)
3. Alabama
4. Florida State (3)
5. Ohio State
6. USC
7. Penn State
8. Washington
9. Tennessee
10. Notre Dame
11. Texas
12. Utah
13. Oregon
14. LSU
15. Kansas State
16. Oregon State
17. North Carolina
18. Oklahoma
19. Wisconsin
20. Ole Miss
21. Duke
22. Colorado
23. Texas A&M
24. Tulane
25. Clemson

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