Alabama vs. USF picks, predictions: Week 3 college football odds, lines from expert computer model

Expert picks and predictions for Alabama vs. USF in this Week 3 college football game as the Crimson Tide looks to rebound from the Texas loss

For the first time with Nick Saban as head coach, Alabama lost a game at home by double digits following a 34-24 loss against Texas and now the Crimson Tide looks to rebound with a tune-up road game against USF in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Penalties, mental errors, and turnovers helped doom the Crimson Tide against the Longhorns, as did substandard play on both lines of scrimmage, as the team failed to adequately protect quarterback Jalen Milroe and the ground game, and struggled to apply consistent pressure to Quinn Ewers, who was able to find throwing lanes deep against the Bama secondary on some signature touchdown plays.

It wasn't what Alabama fans hoped to see coming off a two-loss season and not making the College Football Playoff, and going forward it'll be up to Saban and his assistants to mold a better team out of the one he has right now.

What do the experts think of this matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Alabama vs. USF picks, predictions

Alabama vs. USF picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Alabama odds: The index forecasts an easy victory for the Crimson Tide, which has the convincing 98.6 percent chance to win the game outright, according to the model that simulates games 20,000 times to pick winners.

USF odds: Conversely, the Bulls have a meager 1.4 percent shot to defend the home field and improve on the 4-29 record the program has the last three seasons.

Point spread: Alabama comes into the game as 33.5 point favorites against USF, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. (Track it live)

Total: 61.5 points (Over -111, Under -111)

Alabama predictions: Despite their struggles, the index still ranks the Tide as the No. 1 team in the nation, based on a projected per-game scoring margin of 26.3 points against average opponents. FPI estimates Alabama will win 10 games this season and still have a 25.9 percent shot to make the College Football Playoff.

USF odds: The computers project the Bulls will be 12.2 points worse than an average team on a neutral field, ranking No. 111 nationally in the 133 polls, and are estimated to win 4.3 games this season.

Alabama vs. USF schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 16
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College football rankings

More: A closer look at the AP top 25

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Georgia (55)
2. Michigan (2)
3. Florida State (3)
4. Texas (2)
5. USC
6. Ohio State
7. Penn State
8. Washington
9. Notre Dame
10. Alabama
11. Tennessee
12. Utah
13. Oregon
14. LSU
15. Kansas State
16. Oregon State
17. Ole Miss
18. Colorado
19. Oklahoma
20. North Carolina
21. Duke
22. Miami
23. Washington State
24. UCLA
25. Iowa

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