Alabama vs. Auburn game prediction: Who wins and why

It's time for the 2023 Iron Bowl game between Alabama and Auburn, one that comes with College Football Playoff implications. Let's make a prediction for today's matchup.

Coming in ranked No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings for the regular season finale, Alabama hits the road against arch-rival Auburn technically out of the final four and playoff consideration. But a win today and then against No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, combined with some other chaos at the top of the rankings, and the Crimson Tide could find themselves in contention for the semifinal again.

• Alabama has one loss, to a Texas team that will play for the Big 12 title, and needs other teams to lose while it wins out in these final two games
• Style points wouldn't hurt as the selection committee is extremely impressed with the Longhorns' head-to-head victory over the Tide
• Auburn is coming off a loss to New Mexico State despite being 26 point favorites, dropping to 6-5 in Hugh Freeze's debut season as head coach

What can we look forward to in the Iron Bowl game? Let's make our picks for Alabama vs. Auburn both straight-up and against the spread.

Alabama vs. Auburn preview, prediction

When: Sat., Nov. 25
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Iron Bowl 2023 game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Alabama -13
Total: 47.5 points
Moneyline: UA -550 | AU +425
FPI pick: Alabama 85.8% to win

What to watch for

1. Battle on the ground. Ranking just 121st nationally in passing production, Auburn's offense lives or dies based on its ability to generate gains on the ground. It ranks 20th in that department and third in the SEC with just over 194 yards rushing per game on average. That's in large part thanks to Jarquez Hunter. AU's tailback has eclipsed 100 yards rushing in three of the last four games and can make tacklers miss.

2. Bama on the line. Auburn's strength happens to play into Alabama's strength. Coming in, the Crimson Tide's front seven has kept opponents under four yards per carry on average in five of its last six outings, and allows an average of 3.55 yards per touch from opposing backs. But in the last three weeks, the Tide has allowed 144 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry, both marked increases from the team's seasonal averages.

3. Jalen Milroe's development. At the start of the season, the big question for Alabama was how to compensate for its apparent decline in pass protection on a line that was performing well below expectation. So far, quarterback play has changed the narrative somewhat, thanks to Milroe's improved downfield accuracy, better decision making, and especially his mobility. Auburn can generate a decent pass rush, so the Tide needs Milroe to continue to avoid turnovers and exploit his rushing prowess. He's second in the SEC with 12 touchdowns on the ground.

Alabama vs. Auburn prediction

Anyone who knows anything about the Iron Bowl can tell you that stranger things have happened in this game, especially on The Plains. And while Auburn should be able to play inspired in front of its home crowd early on, structural differences on these rosters should become apparent soon enough.

Auburn won't build a consistent passing regime against the Crimson Tide's secondary for four quarters, while Milroe and his receivers will find those holes in the second level. And while the Tigers should muster enough production on the ground to start, playing one-dimension football against this opponent doesn't produce results.

College Football HQ picks...

• Alabama wins 38-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

Related: Alabama vs. Auburn: Iron Bowl history, scores, notable games

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