Alabama vs. Auburn score prediction by college football expert model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. Auburn in the Iron Bowl college football classic

The most important day on the football calendar is here as Rivalry Week kicks off around the country, including the annual Iron Bowl game live from The Plains, as Auburn looks to avoid falling under .500 and giving first-year coach Hugh Freeze a huge statement win, while Alabama hopes to stay in College Football Playoff contention.

• Alabama has already secured the SEC West and will play Georgia in Atlanta for the conference championship at the start of December
• But with one loss already on the books, the Crimson Tide can't afford another slip-up if it wants to keep its slim playoff hopes alive
• Auburn checks in at 3-4 in SEC play and coming off a surprise loss at home to New Mexico State as 26 point favorites
• Freeze is 2-3 against Nick Saban in his career when Ole Miss head coach, but his Tigers come in ranked 121st nationally in passing production

What can we make of the matchup? Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model.

Alabama vs. Auburn prediction

The simulations favor the Crimson Tide to stay perfect in SEC play here.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Auburn by a projected score of 32 to 18 and will win the game by an expected 13.7 points, or by 14 points if we round up.

The model gives the Tide a 79 percent chance of victory outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 336-325-13 (50.8%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26 (59.4%) last week, its best performance of the season to date.

Point spread

Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 47.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -550 and for Auburn at +425.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Alabama -13.5
• Tide to win -550
• Bet over 47.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also pick Alabama to win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects Alabama to win the game in 85.7 percent of simulations, while Auburn wins out in the remaining 14.3 percent of sims.

The computer predicts that Alabama will defeat Auburn by 16.9 points, still enough to cover the line.

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Iron Bowl 2023 game time

When: Sat., Nov. 25
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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