Alabama vs. Michigan score prediction by college football expert model

Expert score predictions for Alabama vs. Michigan in the 2023 Rose Bowl game, the first College Football Playoff semifinal

The first leg of the College Football Playoff finds the eyes of the country fixed on the Granddaddy of 'Em All as the 2024 Rose Bowl Game finds the No. 1 and No. 4 teams on the same field in a marquee Big Ten vs. SEC matchup, as top-ranked Michigan squares off against SEC champion Alabama for the right to play for the national title.

Michigan earned a third-straight College Football Playoff bid after winning another Big Ten championship, while Alabama bested defending champion Georgia in its conference title game to jump undefeated Florida State in a controversial Selection Sunday decision. What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to project the game.

Alabama vs. Michigan prediction

The simulations favor the Big Ten challengers to win the game.

SP+ estimates that Michigan will take down Alabama by a projected score of 29 to 20 and win the game by an expected 8.4 points.

The model suggests the Wolverines have a 69 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 381-354-14 (51.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Michigan comes into the game as 2 point favorites against Alabama, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 44.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Michigan at -125 and for Alabama at +105.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Michigan -2
• UM to win -125
  
• Bet over 44.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also favor the Wolverines to advance to the national title game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index predicts that Michigan will win the game in 56.2 percent of its simulations, while Alabama comes out the winner in the remaining 43.8 percent of sims.

Taking each team's scoring margins into account this season, the computer projects that Michigan will defeat Alabama by 2.8 points, or by a field goal if we round that number up, just enough to cover the line.

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2024 Rose Bowl game time

When: Mon., Jan. 1
Time: 5 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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