Army vs. Navy Game 2023 Prediction, Pick

What to expect as Army and Navy meet in college football's greatest rivalry

The question of what is college football's greatest rivalry game is naturally somewhat subjective, but when push comes to shove, it's hard to argue against Army vs. Navy. So special is the game that it gets its own Saturday all to itself, so the whole country can watch. The annual battle between the nation's two biggest military academies is loaded with tradition, passion, and pride, and the 2023 game is no different.

The sheer pageantry of the Army-Navy game is unmatched in college football, or indeed any other American sport, and in recent years, it's also one of the closest rivalry games. The schools have split the last four meetings, two apiece, and five of the last seven games have been decided by one possession.

Army vs. Navy game prediction, preview

When: Sat., Dec. 9
Time: 3 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Army vs. Navy game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Army -2.5
Total: 27.5 points
Moneyline: Army -150 | Navy +120
FPI pick: Army 61.7% to win

What to watch for

What's on the line: As the final leg of the Commander-in-Chief Trophy, this game can decide which school secures that honor, awarded to the winner of the games between the three service academies. Navy lost to Air Force, while Army already beat the Falcons, so if Army wins this one, it wins the Trophy. But if Navy wins, it results in a three-way tie, allowing Air Force, last year's winner, to take the Trophy instead.

Smash mouth football: Army ranks 131st nationally in passing and 110th in scoring offense, but ranks 10th in rushing, with 209 yards on average per game on the ground. Navy is 132nd in passing, 122nd in scoring, and 14th in rushing, with 200.5 yards each time out. You see where this is going. The one big difference? Army is 113th in rush defense, while Navy is a very respectable 28th in that department nationally.

The magic number. Relating to Army's struggles stopping the run, watch for the number 155 on Saturday. This season, the Black Knights were a perfect 4-0 when allowing that many rushing yards or fewer to opponents. But they were just 1-6 when allowing more. That's how many they allowed to Air Force in a win, a game in which Army forced six turnovers.

Army vs. Navy prediction

However cheesy it is to say you can "throw out the stats" in college football rivalry games, it's broadly true, especially in this game. What do we know about the series? Not a lot of passing, a very close score, and expect the unexpected. 

But two factors stick out: Army is poor in the turnover department, ranking 115th in turnovers loss and 110th in total margin. Navy is 3rd in margin and 12th in total turnovers lost. That mark, combined with Army's weakness against the run, and things turn fairly convincingly in Navy's favor.

As does one remarkable statistic: the service academies have finished under the expected total in 18 straight games coming into Saturday and in 90 percent of all results dating back to that time.

College Football HQ picks...

• Navy wins 16-10
• In an upset
• And hits the under

Related: Army vs. Navy score prediction by expert model

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