Baylor vs. Air Force picks, predictions: Armed Forces Bowl schedule, odds

Picks and predictions as Baylor and Air Force meet in the Armed Forces Bowl as the college football bowl schedule marches on

The college football bowl schedule continues this week as Baylor meets up with Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl on Thursday.

Baylor came into this season as the defending Big 12 champion, and still had an outside shot at a repeat late in the year, but a three-game losing streak resulted in the Bears skidding to a 6-6 record.

More: College football games today: Bowl schedule for Thursday

If you didn't already know, Air Force likes to run the ball. A lot. The Falcons are 1st in college football rushing for an average of 330.9 yards per game, are tops with 3,971 total yards on the ground, are 10th nationally with 34 rushing touchdowns, and post 5.4 yards per carry on average behind a stout offensive line.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor vs. Air Force picks, predictions

Baylor prediction: The index estimates that the Bears have the comfortable 69.0 percent chance to win the game outright over the Falcons.

Air Force prediction: That leaves the service academy with the outside 31.0 percent chance to pull off the upset and take down the Big 12 challenger.

Point spread: Baylor comes into the game as 3.5 point favorites against Air Force, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: The book set the over/under mark at 43 points for the game.

Moneyline: Baylor -200 | Air Force +145

Spread consensus pick: Baylor -3.5

College Football HQ prediction: Our projections indicate that Baylor will defeat Air Force by an estimated score of 26 to 17 and cover the spread (Baylor -3.5).

How to watch, stream: The game is set for 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on the main ESPN network and streams live on fuboTV (Try for free).

Baylor Football Betting Trends

+ Baylor is 5-1 against the spread in its last 6 non-conference games

+ Bears are 22-4-2 ATS in their last 28 after an ATS loss

+ The under is 4-0 in Baylor's last four games in December

+ Baylor is 7-5 against the spread overall this season

Air Force Football Betting Trends

+ The under is 5-1 in Air Force's last six games

+ Falcons are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 after an ATS win

+ The under is 4-0 in AF's last 4 after an ATS win

+ Air Force is 6-6 against the spread overall this season

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College Football Playoff rankings

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. Tennessee
7. Clemson
8. Utah
9. Kansas State
10. USC
11. Penn State
12. Washington
13. Florida State
14. Oregon State
15. Oregon
16. Tulane
17. LSU
18. UCLA
19. South Carolina
20. Texas
21. Notre Dame
22. Mississippi State
23. NC State
24. Troy
25. UTSA

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