Clemson vs. Miami football game score prediction by analytic model

What the analytics predict for Clemson vs. Miami in this Week 8 college football game

A pair of ACC rivals meet up today, both now unranked after falling out of the polls after early losses as Clemson hits the road against Miami in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.

Clemson has a shot at a three-game win streak for the first time this season and a win here would keep it in the top half of the ACC standings, coming in at 2-2 in conference play and 4-2 overall.

Miami has dropped two straight to open the ACC portion of the schedule, against underdog Georgia Tech after an infamous coaching blunder, and then on the road to North Carolina, falling to 0-2 in conference games.

What do the analytics predict for the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model.

Clemson vs. Miami prediction

Clemson vs. Miami game prediction / USA Today Images

Score prediction

The simulations favor Miami to pull off the upset against Clemson, but by the narrowest of possible margins.

SP+ forecasts the Hurricanes will take down the Tigers by a projected score of 26 to 25 with a close expected 0.6 margin of victory in the game.

The model gives Miami a 51 percent chance to win the game outright, compared with Clemson at 49 percent.

SP+ a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it? So far, SP+ is 188-178-10 overall (51.3%) and 173-195-8 against the spread (47.1%) this season.

Point spread 

Clemson is a 3.5 point favorite against Miami, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 47.5 points for the game.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Miami +3.5
• Miami on the ML at +125
• Bet over 47.5 points

Computer predictions

Other analytic tools favor Clemson to defeat Miami outright.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points to simulate games 20,000 times to pick straight-up winners.

Clemson came out the winner in 53.3 percent of the simulations, while Miami won in the remaining 46.7 percent of sims.

FPI forecasts that Clemson will win the game by 2.3 points, or by rounding down, by an expected 2 points, not enough to cover the line.

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Clemson at Miami schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ACC Network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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