College football pick em: Week 5 predictions by computer model

Locking in our game predictions as the Week 5 college football schedule kicks off with the aid of the Football Power Index computer analytic models

What can we expect from the Week 5 slate of college football games? This week, we turn to FPI to guide us in making our own predictions for the biggest matchups.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Devised by football analysts, its rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, overall talent, and a team’s schedule.

College football pick em: Week 5 predictions by computer model

Week 5 college football computer picks / USA Today Images

USC (89.8%) over Colorado (10.2%). The computers strongly suggest Colorado is about to absorb a second-straight loss in Pac-12 play as the Trojans and their potent offense come to Boulder. But can USC's defense contain the Buffaloes' skill targets?

Kentucky (51.9%) over Florida (48.1%). UK needs all the wins it can get early in the season with a brutal SEC schedule to come and gets the Gators at home for the right to be called the No. 2 team in the SEC East standings.

Texas A&M (72.9%) over Arkansas (27.1%). The Razorbacks try to avoid falling to 0-2 in SEC play against an Aggie team whose offense looked better under Max Johnson, who stepped in for the injured Conner Weigman.

Syracuse (55.1%) over Clemson (44.9%). A surprise from the simulations has the Orange taking down the already 2-2 Tigers behind an offense posting over 507 yards per game with dual threat QB Garrett Shrader, the team leader in rushing, too, with 12 all-purpose touchdowns.

Georgia (81.8%) over Auburn (18.2%). The Bulldogs' defense should have a big advantage against an Auburn air game that couldn't get off the ground last week, but can the defending champs turn up the volume on offense?

Michigan (87.6%) over Nebraska (12.4%). The Wolverines haven't gone over 35 points in a game yet this season and set their backs against a Cornhusker front seven that is allowing under 47 yards per game on the ground in the Big Ten road opener.

Texas (93.6%) over Kansas (6.4%). A huge number for the Longhorns against an undefeated Jayhawk squad that is more productive on offense overall, especially running the ball, and in yards allowed per game. The books list Texas at -17, too.

Ole Miss (56.6%) over LSU (43.4%). A pair of 3-1 SEC West rivals that are almost mirror images of each other defensively and each boasting dual threat quarterbacks who can change the game with their arm or legs. LSU is the 2 point favorite on the books, but wins out in a minority (8,680 of the 20,000) simulations.

Oregon (96.6%) over Stanford (3.4%). The Ducks just ran the Buffaloes out of town and are projected to repeat the formula against a 1-3 Cardinal. Oddsmakers call Oregon a 27 point favorite this week.

Notre Dame (69.5%) over Duke (30.5%). Off a heart-breaking loss to Ohio State in the final seconds, the Irish get a date on the road against a productive Duke team that took down Clemson and plays a highly balanced offensive game.

Tennessee (70.4%) over South Carolina (29.6%). The Gamecocks took down the Vols in a major upset last season. Can they do it again? Spencer Rattler can turn it on if he has time, but he needs help from a backfield working on just 75 yards per game.

Alabama (87.9%) over Mississippi State (12.1%). The Bulldogs' defense has allowed 78 points the last two SEC games, but hope the cowbells can disorient a Crimson Tide attack that is very hit-or-miss with Jalen Milroe working under center.

Washington (85.6%) over Arizona (14.4%). Just 7 points keep Arizona from being undefeated thanks to an offense that posts over 450 yards per game and has the home field edge, but the Huskies are on a mission, placing 2nd in college football scoring 49.8 points per game. Michael Penix is hitting 76% of his throws for 16 touchdowns.

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