College Football Pick 'Em: Week 7 Game Predictions by Expert Model
Week 7 of the 2023 college football season brings us four games that are head-to-head matchups between teams in the AP top 25 rankings, setting the stage for some major division and conference realignment as we move into the second half. Looking ahead to Saturday's action, let's lock in our predictions for the top games.
To help with that, we turn to Football Power Index (FPI), a computer predictive tool whose college football rankings and analytic prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Devised by football analysts, its rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, overall talent, and a team’s schedule.
Indiana at Michigan
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Michigan to win: 96.6%
Indiana to win: 3.4%
The Hoosiers are in danger of falling to 0-3 in Big Ten play against the defending conference champs here as the Wolverines come in as 33.5 point favorites and working behind a strong offense that is posting over 414 total yards per game.
Ohio State at Purdue
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Ohio State to win: 94%
Purdue to win: 6%
Strange things can happen when the Buckeyes go to Purdue, as the 2018 game certainly proves: Ohio State was a playoff favorite that year before a stunning loss to the Boilermakers. Now, not playing as dominant as it has the last few years, OSU trailed at home to Maryland before making a comeback, and hopes to get more offensive output starting this week.
Arkansas at Alabama
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Alabama to win: 90.6%
Arkansas to win: 9.4%
Alabama seems to have recovered from its early-season struggles, thanks in large part to the dynamic play of quarterback Jalen Milroe, whose mobility is able to get away from the line's occasionally-sketchy protection, moving to 3-0 in SEC play and back in front for the West Division title hunt. Arkansas has dropped four straight behind poor line play, a weak run game, but with a decent pass rush up front.
Oregon at Washington
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Oregon to win: 54.8%
Washington to win: 45.2%
A battle for second-place apparently between these top-10 ranked rivals, and college football's top-two ranked offensive attacks. And if USC loses at Notre Dame, it'll be for first place in the Pac-12 standings. Oregon plays solid on both lines and is loaded with skill players while Washington can throw the ball anywhere at any time. If the Ducks can adequately pressure Michael Penix, they can get in position for the upset.
Texas A&M at Tennessee
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Tennessee to win: 56.8%
Texas A&M to win: 43.2%
Tennessee is still evolving, not quite the No. 1 ranked total offense it was last season, a more methodical unit averaging 70th in passing production, but running the ball with authority, ranked 7th nationally with over 231 yards per game on the ground. In come the Aggies, who play a very strong game defensively at the line. A&M is looking to avoid falling to .500 in SEC play while the Vols are hoping to avoid falling under .500 in conference.
Auburn at LSU
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LSU to win: 75.9%
Auburn to win: 24.1%
Already at two losses through six games, LSU has no margin for error trying to defend its SEC West title, especially with the trip to Alabama coming up soon. The path back to Atlanta starts with tightening up these coverage lanes on the back end, a task that should get easier against an anemic Auburn downfield attack, while Jayden Daniels and LSU's premier skill threats look to get the upper hand.
USC at Notre Dame
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Notre Dame to win: 61.8%
USC to win: 38.2%
After a loss at Louisville last week, their second of the season, the Irish appear to be out of the playoff conversation, but they can still influence the semifinal this weekend. USC is undefeated, but playing still more weak defense and now is even struggling to adequately protect quarterback Caleb Williams. The Trojans could be walking into a trap if Sam Hartman and the Irish run game and get going again.
Miami at North Carolina
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North Carolina to win: 61.2%
Miami to win: 38.8%
Carolina is in position to strike and make a play for the ACC championship with a chance to move to 3-0 in conference play behind an offense posting 500 yards per game and ranks 11th in passing and 21st in scoring. There's plenty of talk about Miami's blunder last week, but it doesn't have time to dwell on that with the danger of falling to 0-2 in conference. The Hurricanes are top 15 in scoring offense and defense and this game is a huge opportunity to change the narrative.
UCLA at Oregon State
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Oregon State to win: 69.5%
UCLA to win: 30.5%
UCLA kept hope alive last week with a statement win over ranked Washington State, moving to 1-1 in conference play, but has to keep its guard up against a 5-1 Beavers team that runs the ball with excellence behind one of the league's premier blocking formations. Both these teams play solid run defense, and the Bruins have a dynamite front seven rotation overall.
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