Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State bowl game prediction, pick against the spread

College Football HQ prediction, pick against the spread for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl between Wisconsin and Oklahoma State

Predicting what happens in a bowl game is one of the toughest things to do in college football, given the intangibles surrounding each game like the new transfer portal, coaching changes, opt-outs, and general questions around motivation.

That's especially true when considering the case of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

Wisconsin and Oklahoma meet up in a Big Ten vs. Big 12 matchup in Phoenix, but both come in without their starting quarterbacks.

The Badgers are without Graham Mertz, who is headed to Florida, and Oklahoma State, lost four-year starting quarterback Spencer Sanders to the portal this offseason.

Schedule: Best non-CFP bowl games you should watch

Moreover, Wisconsin is looking at a totally new regime after hiring Luke Fickell to succeed Paul Chryst as head coach. He won't be on the sideline, though: that honor goes to interim Jim Leonhard in his last appearance for his alma mater.

With all that in mind, let's take a shot at making predictions for this year's Guaranteed Rate Bowl between the Badgers and Cowboys.

Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State prediction, picks against the spread

Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State bowl game predictions, picks

How to watch, stream

When: Tues., Dec. 27

Time: 9:15 p.m. Central

TV: ESPN2 network

Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication

Point spread: Wisconsin comes into the game as 3.5 point favorites against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at SI.

Total: The book set the over/under mark at 45.5 points for the game.

Moneyline: Wisconsin -188 | Oklahoma State +138

FPI prediction: Wisconsin has a projected 53.8 percent chance to win the game, compared to Oklahoma State at 46.2 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.

Spread consensus pick: Wisconsin -3.5

Place your bets: Bet on Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State live on SI Sportsbook

Wisconsin Football Betting Trends

+ Wisconsin 5-7 (41.7%) against the spread overall this season

+ The over is 5-1 in the Badgers' last 6 games after an ATS loss

+ Over is 4-1 in Wisconsin's last 5 games after a straight up loss

+ Over is 4-1 in UW's last 5 after allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards last game

Oklahoma State Football Betting Trends

+ Cowboys are 6-6 (50%) against the spread overall this season

+ The under is 5-0 in OSU's last 5 games total

+ OSU is 6-1 against the spread in its last 7 neutral site games

+ Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 bowl games

Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State: Keys to victory

What to expect as Wisconsin and Oklahoma State meet up

Wisconsin wins if: It can run the ball and bleed the clock. Because not having Graham Mertz can't help but reduce the team to one dimension on offense. Even with him, this passing attack couldn't crack the top 100 nationally. But it has lead back Braelon Allen, who eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing in two straight seasons and scored double-digit touchdowns both years. And he's playing behind a strong group of blockers at the line that paves the way for a 4.5 ypc average on the ground.

Oklahoma State wins if: It can contain Allen. That job got a little harder after linebacker Mason Cobb, among others, elected to transfer out, opening up some spots in the front seven to box in the Badgers' rushing attack. But the Cowboys' defense is solid across the board and ranks top 20 nationally in tackles for loss and should own the physicality edge against Wisconsin's front blockers.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl Prediction

The quarterback situation is a huge question for both teams and OSU's Garret Rangel and UW's Chase Wolf are going to need help from their receivers after the catch and especially from their running backs.

Both teams will lean hard on their defenses, but even with some missing pieces and though they will struggle against Braelon Allen early in the game, the Cowboys will have the ability to load up the box and force Wisconsin to win the game by throwing the football in the later stages.

That's not something Wisconsin will do well. Oklahoma State won't either, but it should have the speed and physicality advantage on both sides of the ball.

College Football HQ prediction: Oklahoma State beats Wisconsin, 22-17 (Oklahoma State +3.5, Under 45.5)

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