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College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 1 games

Place your bets: The 2023 college football season is here and now it's time to make our predictions against the spread for the Week 1 schedule of games
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Week 1 of the college football schedule is about to kick off, so let's make our predictions against the spread for the games this weekend

How are we doing? College Football HQ went 6-1 against the spread during the Week 0 games. Let's preview our selections for this week.

Lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Florida at Utah (-4.5)

Florida Gators wide receiver Ricky Pearsall on a play during a college football game in the SEC.

A tough call given the unknowns around Utah's top two players, quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe. Both offenses should run the ball with authority, although Utah's line returns more experience and the Gators could struggle stopping the run after ranking 95th in that category last year. 

ATS pick: Florida +4.5

North Carolina (-2.5) vs. South Carolina

North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye drops back for a pass in a college football game in the ACC.

Watch how the Gamecocks' new-look cornerback rotation fares against Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye, one of college football's two or three best passers, but who could be without wideout Tez Walker, his best target on paper but who still awaits an eligibility decision. UNC has struggled to protect Maye in the pocket, but should have an edge against the Gamecocks' questionable pass rush. 

ATS pick: UNC -2.5

LSU (-2.5) vs. Florida State

LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers on a play during a college football game in the SEC.

An evenly matched game, as the number suggests. Both have dynamic, mobile quarterbacks, top-flight skill pieces, and a pair of ferocious front seven units. Playoff implications are strong, but FSU can still make the CFP with a loss here, more so than LSU could. The difference could be secondary play: the Seminoles have the slight edge after acquiring transfer corner Fentrell Cypress while LSU is undergoing some important changes in the rotation here. 

ATS pick: Florida State +2.5

MTSU at Alabama (-39.5)

Scenes from an Alabama Crimson Tide game during the college football season.

The Blue Raiders return a lot of experience from a decent Group of Five level roster and they upset Miami on the road a year ago. Alabama has major questions at quarterback and doesn't have a sure thing at wide receiver yet. That could grind the Tide's gears moving the ball early, but while Simpson/Milroe/Buchner find their rhythm, Bama's defense should keep things well out of reach. 35 or 38 points out of reach, but not 40. 

ATS pick: MTSU +39.5

Ohio State (-28.5) at Indiana

Ohio State Buckeyes star TreVeyon Henderson in action against Penn State during a college football game in the Big Ten.

Indiana will look differently this season after bringing on two dozen transfers, but still do not present the kind of agility on the back end it will need against Ohio State's all-world options at receiver. It might be close at first as the Buckeyes' new quarterback finds his way, but as OSU's front seven wears down the Hoosiers at the line, the likes of Harrison, Egbuka, and Henderson will rip off a few big plays to pull away. ATS pick: Ohio State -28.5

Boise State at Washington (-14.5)

Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze on a pass during a college football game.

Taylen Green is one of the Mountain West's top quarterbacks and he should find some throwing lanes against a secondary which projects to be Washington's weakest link. That will keep things close throughout, but the Huskies have the power at the line to shrink Green's pocket while Michael Penix and his receivers go to work. Washington by 10 or 13. 

ATS pick: Boise State +14.5

Clemson (-12.5) at Duke

Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik attempts a pass during a college football game in the ACC.

Duke won 9 games a year ago and lost four games by 8 points or less. Plus, it returns quarterback Riley Leonard, who had 20 TDs and 6 INTs a year ago, and who goes against a Clemson front seven replacing some big names. There are questions around Clemson's ability to move the ball downfield consistently, and while new OC Garrett Riley will place a heavy emphasis on that, it's too early to tell if he can. Clemson is just 4-10 against the spread in its last 14 as a double-digit favorite. 

ATS pick: Duke +12.5

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