College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 4 games

Locking in our predictions against the spread with some epic college football games on the schedule this weekend

We got back in the money last Saturday in our weekly college football predictions against the spread, going 4-2 in the six games we picked, taking the L on Colorado's close one against CSU and Mississippi State at +9.5, which got plowed by LSU. But we came through as South Carolina kept it close against Georgia, Florida beat Tennessee, and Penn State and Washington winning big.

How are we doing? College Football HQ is 16-11 (.592) against the spread so far this season. Let's see if we can scratch any value out of this weekend's games.

Lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook

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Florida State at Clemson

Line: Florida State -2.5

The word: The Seminoles are 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 games overall and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 on the road. Clemson is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games and 2-12 against the spread in its last 14 games played in September. FSU has a ton of weapons and enough bodies up front to bother a Clemson offense still searching for an identity.

Our ATS pick: Florida State -2.5

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Colorado at Oregon

Line: Oregon -20.5

The word: Colorado is 4-11 against the spread in its last 15 games, although it's 2-1 ATS in Deion Sanders' first 3, while Oregon is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 outings overall, and the total went under in 6 of the Ducks' last 8 games. Not having Travis Hunter is costly for the Buffs, and Oregon has a veteran, play-making quarterback and is superior on both lines, but Colorado will keep it within 3 TDs with the occasional big play. 

Our ATS pick: Colorado +20.5

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Ole Miss at Alabama

Line: Alabama -6.5

The word: The line shifted a half-point in the Rebels' favor since the open with a more critical gaze on the Tide after a sloppy win over USF. Ole Miss is 12-6 against the spread in its last 18 vs. Alabama, which is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 against SEC opposition and 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 against West Division teams. Jaxson Dart is the 7th most efficient QB in the country and the Rebs' offense can move, even though it struggled running the ball. Bama's pass pro is a problem, as is the QB position, but it has the front line defense to make the late stops against Dart & Co.

Our ATS pick: Alabama -6.5

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Arkansas at LSU

Line: LSU -17.5

The word: Arkansas is 11-4-1 against the spread in its last 16 against LSU but has won just once in the last 7 tries straight-up, and the last three in this rivalry have been decided by three points. But this one feels different: LSU's offense is coming off a historically-efficient performance against the Bulldogs and has scored 113 points the last two games. The Razorbacks' pass defense has struggled and lead back Raheim Sanders won't play in the game. If Rocket was on the field, we would take the Hogs to stay within two TDs, but his absence makes the difference.

Our ATS pick: LSU -17.5

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Oregon State at Washington State

Line: Oregon State -2.5

The word: Oregon State is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 but 3-6 against the spread in its last 9 against Wazzu, which is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 at home and 10-5 ATS in the last 15 overall. OSU will protect DJ Uiagalelei, who has 10 TDs so far, and back Damien Martinez, posting 8.8 ypc and tops the Pac-12 in rushing yards. Cameron Ward has 986 passing yards, 6th nationally, and will test the Beavers' back seven. But OSU is the more physical team and can bleed clock when it has to.

Our ATS pick: Oregon State -2.5

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Iowa at Penn State

Line: Penn State -14.5

The word: Iowa is 7-2 against the spread in its last 9 games and 6-1 in its last 7 on the road, while Penn State is 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 overall. Drew Allar and the PSU backs are in for a fight against another stingy Hawkeye defense, one that allows 3.5 yards per carry and has held the Nittany Lions to under 21 points the last 3 times out. Penn State wins, but Iowa will make them earn it.

Our ATS pick: Iowa +14.5

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Ohio State at Notre Dame

Line: Ohio State -3.5

The word: It's not often in recent years the Irish had the outright advantage at quarterback, but Sam Hartman is just that, the 3rd most efficient QB in the country working behind a solid line and aided by some skilled backs. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last 5, but 6-14 SU in the last 20 as the underdog. Ohio State has all-world skill pieces but can its new QB connect with them consistently against a good Irish secondary and facing a strong inside pass rush? OSU is 3-6 ATS in the last 9 overall and 1-4 against the spread in the last 5 as the favorite.

Our ATS pick: Notre Dame +3.5

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