College football pick 'em: Week 4 game predictions by computer model

Locking in our game predictions as the Week 4 college football schedule kicks off with the aid of the Football Power Index computer analytic models

This was the weekend college football fans had circled on their calendars months ago, looking ahead to a somewhat historic six games featuring head-to-head matchups between teams in the AP top 25 rankings, stacked with critical conference matchups that could directly impact what the national title race looks like down the stretch.

What can we expect from the Week 4 slate of games? This week, we turn to FPI to guide us in making our own predictions for the biggest matchups.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Devised by football analysts, its rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, overall talent, and a team’s schedule.

College football Week 4 picks, predictions

Week 4 college football picks / USA Today Images

Michigan (84.9%) over Rutgers. Jim Harbaugh returns to the sideline as the Wolverines hope to get a little more juice going on offense in the Big Ten opener against a 3-0 Knights team that can run the ball with success.

Florida State (57.3%) over Clemson. The simulations and oddsmakers alike forecast a close game as Clemson looks to avoid falling to 2-2 against a Seminole team loaded with weapons but coming off a close win over BC a week ago.

Oklahoma (86.7%) over Cincinnati. A new-look Big 12 matchup and a chance for a Sooners offense averaging 56 points to show off against a Cincy team coming off a loss to a MAC team at home.

Oregon (93.9%) over Colorado. A surprising number here, not because Oregon shouldn't be favored at home, but for how well Colorado has looked up to now. Not having Travis Hunter will be costly, and the Buffs have some top-flight skill players, but the Ducks are a force on both lines.

Utah (65.4%) over UCLA. The line has inched more in the Utes' favor, and sits at 6 points at home against a solid Bruins offense led by frosh quarterback Dante Moore, but Utah is playing strongly despite the absence of Cameron Rising.

Alabama (66%) over Ole Miss. Favored by less than a touchdown, the Crimson Tide are in a valley right now, struggling in pass protection and still with questions at quarterback, while the Rebels boast a potent offense led by an efficient Jaxson Dart.

LSU (88.3%) over Arkansas. The absence of Rocket Sanders and a meager back seven have the Razorbacks at a disadvantage on the road against an LSU offense that just punched Mississippi State in the face and is loaded with playmakers.

Oregon State (65.7%) over Washington State. The last two teams standing in the Pac-12 are showing they're legit. OSU has a QB/RB combo working behind a solid line while Wazzu can throw the ball anywhere, anytime. 

Penn State (86.8%) over Iowa. Back home in Happy Valley, Drew Allar and PSU's agile backs face a tough test against another stubborn Hawkeye defense.

USC (98.1%) over Arizona State. Trojans are favored strongly by the simulations as expected, but now even more so as the Sun Devils look to their fourth-string quarterback after the room was decimated by injuries.

Washington (84.6%) over Cal. The Huskies' offense is almost guaranteed to score at least 40 points, a number the Golden Bears will struggle to match in this game, maybe the last between these West Coast teams ever when realignment kicks in.

Georgia (98.6%) over UAB. No surprises here for the defending champs off a close win over South Carolina and heading into the last "cupcake game" before starting the SEC slate in earnest, but the Bulldogs are nursing some notable injuries this week.

Ohio State (65.8%) over Notre Dame. The safe money is riding with the Buckeyes as 3.5 point favorites, but it's not often the Irish have an outright advantage at quarterback. That's what Sam Hartman gives them, at home, with targets who can create space, and with the Domers boasting some credible front seven threats on defense. This could get interesting.

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