College football picks, predictions for Week 8's top games

Making our picks for college football's biggest Week 8 games

Week 8 of the 2023 college football season figures to help us sort out the wheat from the chaff with four games featuring head-to-head matchups between teams in the AP top 25 rankings, with division and conference races heating up in mid-October. Now it's time to lock in our picks for the biggest games on the schedule.

• To help with that, we turn to the Football Power Index.
• FPI is a computer predictive tool whose rankings and analytic prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts future performance.
• Devised by football analysts, its rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, overall talent, and a team’s schedule.
• The index uses data points from both teams to simulate head-to-head matchups 20,000 times to pick straight-up game winners

Washington State at Oregon

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Oregon to win: 94.8%

Washington State to win: 5.2%

College Football HQ picks: Oregon. The Ducks have the bodies on the perimeter and in the front seven to slow down the Cougars' previously-lethal passing attack. Washington State was 4-0 and ranked two weeks ago but two shocking losses have changed the narrative, especially a 44-6 loss to Arizona.

Texas at Houston

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Texas to win: 93.6%

Houston to win: 6.4%

College Football HQ picks: Texas. Houston has the quarterback and the targets to bother the Longhorns' secondary, but Texas is coming off an open week and is posting over 300 yards passing on average, a clear advantage against a Cougar back seven that is quite generous.

Virginia at North Carolina

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North Carolina to win: 94.2%

Virginia to win: 5.8%

College Football HQ picks: North Carolina. There shouldn't be too much drama in the South's Oldest Rivalry, as the Tar Heels boast a balanced offense that can complement Drake Maye's passing protection with a productive ground attack, and has a clear edge over the 1-5 Cavs to stay in 2nd place in the ACC.

Ole Miss at Auburn

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Ole Miss to win: 77.2%

Auburn to win: 22.8%

College Football HQ picks: Ole Miss. Auburn is yet to win a game in SEC play for first-year coach Hugh Freeze and up until last week could be counted on to play some quality defense. But that was before it came across LSU's multi-varied attack. That, combined with Auburn's quarterback troubles and the Rebels' skill at generating takeaways should keep Ole Miss in the SEC West title race, especially with that win over LSU in its back pocket.

Tennessee at Alabama

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Alabama to win: 76.4% 

Tennessee to win: 23.6%

College Football HQ picks: Alabama. A major upset for the Vols a year ago, they won't have the offensive firepower they did last season, but they run the ball at an average that's good for top-10 nationally. That, combined with some expert front line play on defense, and UT can harass Alabama's protection, but Jalen Milroe has found a rhythm moving the ball in the deeper third of the field to his skill targets.

Michigan at Michigan State

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Michigan to win: 93.1%

Michigan State to win: 6.9%

College Football HQ picks: Michigan. The Spartans are in the Big Ten East basement amid talent concerns and coaching upheaval and come in with college football's 108th ranked scoring attack, going against a loaded two-time Big Ten championship team playing balanced football and dominating on both lines of scrimmage.

Penn State at Ohio State

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Ohio State to win: 63.4% 

Penn State to win: 36.6%

College Football HQ picks: Ohio State. This is probably the deepest Penn State team that James Franklin, who is 1-8 in this series, will take into Columbus, thanks to the nation's No. 1 ranked defense in most categories. But the Buckeyes seem a little more battle-tested, have the theoretical edge at receiver, and home field advantage to pull out a close game. Don't be surprised if Penn State keeps the game within the 4.5 point line, though.

Duke at Florida State

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Florida State to win: 80%

Duke to win: 20%

College Football HQ picks: Florida State. Just 7 points keep Duke from being undefeated, but there's a concern over how well quarterback Riley Leonard has recovered from his injury. Florida State is 1 of 9 teams averaging more than 40 points per game, playing balanced offense, but faces a credible challenge against the Blue Devils, who are physical at the line of scrimmage.

Utah at USC

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USC to win: 69.4%

Utah to win: 30.6%

College Football HQ picks: USC. But with some caution. The defensive concerns remain a problem for the Trojans, although the unit should fare well against a Utah attack that ranks 111th in scoring and 125th in passing without Cameron Rising in at quarterback. But how well can the line protect Caleb Williams against a physical Utes front seven defense, the engine behind a 5th ranked scoring defense?

Clemson at Miami

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Clemson to win: 52.5%

Miami to win: 47.5%

College Football HQ picks: Miami. A loss here would drop the Hurricanes to 0-3 in ACC play, but their run stop stacks up well against Clemson's ground game, allowing under 88 yards on average, and Tyler Van Dyke should find some throwing lanes against the Tiger back seven as he posts over 300 yards in the air.

Arizona State at Washington

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Washington to win: 97.3%

Arizona State to win: 2.7%

College Football HQ picks: Washington. Sitting at 2nd in the Pac-12 standings after the statement win over Oregon, the Huskies set their No. 1 ranked passing attack against the Sun Devils, hoping that the team doesn't step into a trap after last week's emotional victory.

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