Playoffology 2023: How college football's top teams can make the playoff
Of the Power Five conference title games upcoming on Championship Saturday, only two are set as we move into Rivalry Week, the regular season finale portion of the 2023 college football season. In the ACC, Florida State will take on Louisville. And in the SEC, defending national champion Georgia will face challenger Alabama.
That means there's still plenty to play for this weekend for the seven teams remaining in the college football rankings that are either undefeated or have lost one game. With more competition for the final four positions in the CFP rankings and the national semifinal, every snap counts on Friday and Saturday and will either help or hurt those teams as Selection Sunday approaches.
How can college football's top contenders make the playoff? Let's run through the scenarios for the nation's best teams that remain within striking distance.
Georgia
USA Today Images
CFP ranking: No. 1
Games left: at Georgia Tech, vs. Alabama (SEC Championship Game)
How can Georgia do it: Win those two games, and the Bulldogs are in. And given what a firm hold they have on their position in the rankings as back-to-back defending national champions, you could see a situation in which they make the final four even with a loss. But a loss to the Crimson Tide makes things very interesting, especially if Florida State, Washington, and Ohio State/Michigan win their title games and stay undefeated, and if Texas wins the Big 12 with one total loss, plus a win against Alabama.
Ohio State
USA Today Images
CFP ranking: No. 2
Games left: at Michigan, and if they win that game, the Big Ten Championship
How can Ohio State do it: A win against Michigan this weekend clinches a spot in the Big Ten title game against Iowa, and a win there guarantees a spot in the playoff as undefeated conference champion. But even a very close loss to the Wolverines would keep the Buckeyes in the committee's interest. Still, that interest depends on developments elsewhere. A loss to UM plus wins by Georgia, Florida State, and Washington in their title games means no playoff, so OSU would be rooting for a lot of upsets on Championship Saturday should it lose in Ann Arbor.
Michigan
USA Today Images
CFP ranking: No. 3
Games left: vs. Ohio State, and if they win that game, the Big Ten Championship
How can Michigan do it: On the surface, it's all very simple. Beat Ohio State and then Iowa in the league title game, and the Wolverines are clearly in. So what if they lose one of those games? You could argue Saturday is an elimination game for Michigan. A loss there means that it has just one win against a CFP top 25 ranked opponent, Penn State, and quality of schedule could be a major liability for the selectors, especially with other teams in contention that will play for their respective conference championships.
Washington
USA Today Images
CFP ranking: No. 4
Games left: vs. Washington State, vs. TBA (Pac-12 Championship Game)
How can Washington do it: By prevailing in the Apple Cup and winning the Pac-12 title, likely in a rematch against Oregon, and the Huskies' ticket will be one of the easiest to punch. Anything short of an undefeated season, and it remains an open question. Clearly, the committee is impressed with Washington's quality of wins enough to jump it over Florida State in this week's rankings. A loss to WSU is a likely disqualifier, as would a loss to presumably Oregon in the Pac-12 championship if the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC champs are undefeated. But if one of those teams should have one loss, there is some wiggle room, as Washington enters this week higher in the rankings than those other schools.
Florida State
USA Today Images
CFP ranking: No. 5
Games left: at Florida, vs. Louisville (ACC Championship Game)
How can Florida State do it: By winning out, naturally. But that became a little more difficult after the shocking injury that ended quarterback Jordan Travis' collegiate career. Not that the Seminoles could have afforded to lose before, but by moving down one spot in the rankings, it sends a clear message that the team's quality of schedule has taken a hit in the eyes of the committee. Losing a Heisman-caliber quarterback isn't ideal at any time, but especially not in this moment.
Oregon
USA Today Images
CFP ranking: No. 6
Games left: vs. Oregon State, and if they win, the Pac-12 Championship
How can Oregon do it: Thanks to the Ducks' midseason loss to Washington, the path became much clearer, if also more difficult. Win out, and they're in. Especially since those victories would be against a ranked Oregon State and a ranked Huskies team that the committee regards more highly now. Our current bowl projections include Oregon winning the Pac-12 and making the playoff at No. 4.
Texas
USA Today Images
CFP ranking: No. 7
Games left: vs. Texas Tech, and maybe the Big 12 Championship
How can Texas do it: Coming into Rivalry Week, the Longhorns are yet to even clinch a place in the Big 12 Championship Game. First things first: beat the Red Raiders. From there, they would have to beat either the Sooners, Kansas State, or Oklahoma State in Arlington. A one-loss conference champion is within reach, especially one that has a win at Alabama, a game the committee absolutely loves. But not if there are four undefeated conference champions.
Alabama
USA Today Images
CFP ranking: No. 8
Games left: at Auburn, vs. Georgia (SEC Championship Game)
How can Alabama do it: An SEC champion has made every single College Football Playoff and a conference champ Alabama with one total loss would likely earn a spot even over Texas, who gave the Tide that loss head-to-head, as the committee would regard a Crimson Tide victory against No. 1 Georgia as a greater achievement than the Longhorns' win over Alabama in September.
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams