College football predictions for Championship Week 2023

Predictions for college football's conference championship games by the expert model that picks winners

Chaos could be in the air this week as the 2023 college football season turns to Championship Weekend, in particular as the Power Five conference title games kick off laden with implications as to what the College Football Playoff and national championship picture will look like to cap off this season.

Coming into this week's college football schedule, it appears the playoff format may have already been decided, but some upsets, or even one, could cause some considerable changes at the top of the rankings, as four undefeated teams are in contention to make the semifinal, and three one-loss teams looking to challenge them.

Conference USA Championship

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Matchup: NM State vs. Liberty

Prediction: Liberty

Liberty is one of five undefeated FBS college football teams coming into Championship Week and entered the College Football Playoff rankings for the first time last week. The Flames are No. 24 in the official poll this week after finishing their first undefeated regular season. But even a win here would only help Liberty make a New Year's bowl game as the preferred Group of Five selection provided Tulane loses its game, too.

Pac-12 Championship

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Matchup: Oregon vs. Washington

Prediction: Oregon

The winner of the last-ever Pac-12 Championship Game should be a certainty to make the College Football Playoff. That goes for the Ducks, too, who have played some of the most consistent, balanced, and dominant football in the country since losing to the Huskies midseason. Oregon presents a credible defensive challenge to Washington, which has won games by just 6 points on average in Pac-12 play.

Big 12 Championship

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Matchup: Texas vs. Oklahoma State

Prediction: Texas

Sitting at one loss and boasting a head-to-head win over Alabama, the Longhorns are hovering just outside the playoff picture, and even a win here wouldn't guarantee anything. But first, they have to concentrate on winning. Oklahoma State is a strong rushing team with 23 touchdowns on the ground. Texas is strong against the run, allowing just 2.9 yards per carry and just 6 rushing scores and boasts greater perimeter speed at the skill positions.

SEC Championship

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Matchup: Georgia vs. Alabama

Prediction: Georgia

Alabama has been the more flawed team this season, particularly when it comes to protecting the quarterback, but quarterback Jalen Milroe will escape pressure enough to locate his deeper targets to keep it close all day. Rushing the passer is a strength for Georgia, which has the offensive pieces to get behind the Tide's second-level tacklers.

AAC Championship

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Matchup: Tulane vs. SMU

Prediction: Tulane

Not having quarterback Preston Stone, who broke his leg last week and is out for the rest of the season, will severely curtail SMU's ability to move the ball behind what has been college football's 5th ranked scoring offense and 16th ranked passing attack. That leaves the Mustangs looking to run the ball, but Tulane is tops in the AAC allowing 86 rushing yards per game and just 3 yards per carry. SMU is stingy in pass defense, but Michael Pratt has the arm to wear it down over time.

Big Ten Championship

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Matchup: Michigan vs. Iowa

Prediction: Michigan

Looking at Iowa's comically low totals this season and you might be prone to thinking the Hawkeyes have no chance. But their defense is legit, ranking 4th nationally by allowing just 12.2 points per game, 4th in red zone defense, and 2nd surrendering 3.9 yards per play. But the Wolverines are No. 1 nationally in scoring margin per game, beating teams by 27.3 points, and shouldn't have much trouble thwarting a Hawkeye attack that's 124th in scoring, 130th in passing, and 104th in rushing behind their own 1st ranked scoring defense, allowing 10.3 points on average.

ACC Championship

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Matchup: Florida State vs. Louisville

Prediction: Florida State

The Seminoles' production at quarterback is a legitimate concern since Tate Rodemaker stepped in for the injured Jordan Travis. But what they may lack throwing the ball, they make up for in total defensive production and rushing the football, chiefly behind Trey Benson, whose three scores helped win the Florida game last week. Louisville is 9-1 when it runs for 100 yards, and Isaac Guerendo, who has been getting more attention as Jawhar Jordan rehabs a hamstring injury, has averaged 96.8 yards per game over the last month.

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