College football playoffology 2023: Path to the Playoff for top teams

Where things stand in the College Football Playoff chase as Championship Week kicks off with several teams still in the hunt for the national championship

With slightly more parity at the top of the college football rankings as we move into the Championship Week slate of games, there's a little more competition than usual when it comes to predicting the four-team national semifinal. The top four teams right now are undefeated, but with other one-loss schools still within striking distance, that means anything is possible when things kick off on Friday and then Saturday.

Any slip-ups among the favorites, and Selection Sunday could get very interesting. As it stands now, it looks like eight teams have a legitimate claim to be in the playoff race. Or, we could just see four undefeated conference champions in the mix for the national title. How can the contenders make the College Football Playoff?

1. Georgia

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As the consensus No. 1 team in college football, the formula is simple: beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, and Georgia stays put. But what about a loss? Bama and three undefeated conference champs would be ahead of the Bulldogs. Texas and Florida State losing puts them out of the picture, and Washington winning gets rid of Oregon. 

Michigan and Washington would be the only undefeated teams, with Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State the only other one-loss competition. Georgia should be ranked ahead of FSU, for quality of schedule, and OSU, for playing in a conference title game. Oregon beating Washington would put Georgia ahead of the Huskies since the committee favors an SEC loss over a Pac-12 loss.

2. Michigan

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A win against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game ensures the Wolverines won't be ranked lower than No. 2 on Selection Sunday. A loss would put them still ahead of the Buckeyes and any two-loss team. Should the worst happen in Indy, then Michigan wants Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, or Texas to lose their respective games.

3. Washington

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If the Huskies can take care of Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game, they won't be any worse than No. 3 in the final rankings. If they lose, they'll be behind the Ducks and any other undefeated team, and would root for Georgia (to eliminate Alabama), Michigan, Louisville (to eliminate Florida State), and Oklahoma State (to eliminate Texas). In that scenario, the one-loss Huskies would compete with one-loss Ohio State for the final position, and could be favored to take it since they played for a conference title, something the Buckeyes didn't do.

4. Florida State

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Given the relative suspicion the committee has had of the Seminoles and their close results against a subpar schedule recently, their margin for error is very thin. A loss in the ACC Championship Game means FSU is likely out. The selectors would regard it as the worst one-loss team thanks to their perception of the Noles' quality of schedule, one that would include a loss to the league's second-best team and had no result against the league's third or fourth best teams. 

5. Oregon

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As the highest-rated one loss team in the rankings, everything comes down to the Pac-12 title game. A loss to Washington means the Ducks are out. A win should imply they make the semifinal, a result that over the last several weeks we have predicted will happen.

6. Ohio State

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A year ago, the one-loss Buckeyes were able to hang around the final four, but there's too much competition for that to happen this time around. At least two teams, Michigan and the Pac-12 title winner, will finish ahead of Ohio State for certain, but it needs Georgia (to eliminate Alabama) and Washington (to eliminate Oregon) to win, and for Florida State and Texas to lose for a shot.

7. Texas

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A loss to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game sends the Longhorns home, but a win isn't a guarantee of anything, either. Their win over Alabama is regarded by the selectors as the single most high-quality of any team this season, so it's a huge help. By beating the Cowboys, Texas would move ahead of Ohio State and the Pac-12 loser, either Oregon or Washington. Then, it would need either Georgia, Florida State, or Michigan to lose.

8. Alabama

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A win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game would propel Alabama ahead of the Bulldogs, the loser of the Pac-12 title game, and Ohio State. It would then need either Texas, Florida State, or Michigan to lose their respective games.

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