College football predictions: Week 11 picks for Michigan vs. Penn State, other top games

College Football HQ locks in Week 11 predictions for the biggest games, including Michigan-Penn State, Pac-12 battles, and Ole Miss-Georgia

As we move into the final third of the 2023 college football regular season, the most important division and conference races are starting to separate the contenders from the pretenders and the selection committee has made its case for the top teams in the country right now and we inch towards Championship Saturday. Now, it's time to lock in our final predictions for the top games in a critical Week 11.

• Alabama visits UK in SEC road tilt
• Michigan goes to Penn State in landmark B1G battle
• Georgia welcomes Rebels, another ranked SEC challenger
• Oregon hosts USC in Pac-12 clash
• SEC East contenders meet as Vols head to Missouri

What can we make of the games? Let's check with the College Football Power Index prediction model to help us make our picks for this week's biggest matchups.

Alabama at Kentucky

Alabama Athletics

Alabama to win: 85.7%

Kentucky to win: 14.3%

College Football HQ picks: Alabama. While the Wildcats want to run the ball behind Ray Davis, they might have a hard time finding those rushing lanes against Alabama's superb front seven alignment, one that ranks top 30 against the run. Moreover, UK has struggled against efficient passing teams, and Jalen Milroe has been finding a rhythm the last several weeks.

Texas at TCU

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Texas to win: 77.2%

TCU to win: 22.8%

College Football HQ picks: Texas. It's been a close series recently. Not perhaps in the win column, as TCU has taken seven of the last nine, but on the scoreboard, where each of the last four has been 10 points or fewer. TCU has perimeter speed and can challenge the Longhorns' second-level tacklers, but Texas is also getting quarterback Quinn Ewers back from injury to lead the offense.

Ole Miss at Georgia

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Georgia to win: 69.7%

Ole Miss to win: 30.3%

College Football HQ picks: Georgia. The Bulldogs have only won two games against the spread this season, so expect another close one, especially as the Rebels have been playing tougher defense the last few weeks, and with Jaxson Dart at quarterback, are able to manufacture consistent points. But Georgia is top 10 nationally in scoring offense and defense, and in passing production.

USC at Oregon

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Oregon to win: 83.3%

USC to win: 16.7%

College Football HQ picks: Oregon. Two years into this, there is no evidence that the Trojans' defense will be able to stop an attack as multi-varied and productive as Oregon's. None. Alex Grinch won't be there to call the unit after finally getting sacked. With a different scheme, there's a chance USC cuts down the leaks by 10 or 20 percent, while Caleb Williams and the offense keeps it relatively close.

Florida at LSU

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LSU to win: 87.5%

Florida to win: 12.5%

College Football HQ picks: LSU. Generous defense has condemned LSU to three losses and without a chance to defend its SEC West title and now there are questions if quarterback Jayden Daniels can go after a head injury in the Alabama loss. Florida is very average, but is getting consistent work from quarterback Graham Mertz. That keeps it close, but the Tigers' offense is hard to pick against here, as quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is arguably, or perhaps inarguably, the nation's best backup.

Tennessee at Missouri

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Tennessee to win: 60.7%

Missouri to win: 39.3%

College Football HQ picks: Missouri. We predict the upset after watching how productive and physical the Missouri offense has fared this season and came away impressed with its performance against Georgia. The unit is balanced and has the pieces to chip away at defenses with some regularity. Tennessee is winning games with stops and the ground attack, which is 3rd nationally, but the passing game is a liability, especially on the road.

Utah at Washington

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Washington to win: 69.3%

Utah to win: 30.7%

College Football HQ picks: Washington. Expect a close one here as Utah runs the ball with authority and goes against a Huskies defense that has struggled in all phases, but especially against good tailbacks. The Utes can generate a decent pass rush and are tight in the secondary coverages. The nine-point spread is enough to take Utah to cover here, though not to upset, given Washington's No. 1 ranked passing attack.

Miami at Florida State

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Florida State to win: 85%

Miami to win: 15%

College Football HQ picks: Florida State. The losses have some people under-valuing Miami this season, but it has some strength on both lines of scrimmage and a quarterback who, if he can keep hold of the ball, can do some damage. And the Seminoles have to be on guard in case of a trap after clinching a spot in the ACC title game, but it looks like Keon Coleman should be back this week.

Michigan at Penn State

Penn State to win: 50.4%

Michigan to win: 49.6%

College Football HQ picks: Michigan. Finally, the Wolverines get a real test this season. Penn State has a physical, dominant defense that can make plays and grind you down, but Michigan combines elite defensive play with one of college football's top offensive lines and has the edge in the skill positions.

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