Can Colorado become bowl eligible? Predicting the Buffaloes' final 5 games

Colorado has lost three of the last four games, but with five more on the schedule, can the Buffaloes make it to College Football Bowl Season?

Prime Time has definitely hit a skid in the last few weeks. Colorado started 2-0 on the year and surprised the college football world, but then got shellacked by Oregon and played close in a loss to USC, and culminating in a surprise loss to Stanford.

That puts the Buffaloes at 4-3 overall in Deion Sanders' debut season and 1-3 in Pac-12 conference play, sitting at 9th in the league standings. With five games left on the schedule, it would seem bowl eligibility is well within grasp. But is it?

Here's an overview of the games remaining on the Buffaloes' schedule, along with our predictions for if they can get to that six-win threshold.

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Colorado at UCLA (Oct. 28)

FPI prediction: UCLA has a 79 percent chance to beat Colorado

UCLA could still be ranked by the time this one kicks off, hanging on by a thread at No. 25 in the polls and with a road date against Stanford this weekend. 

The Bruins play a strong brand of defense at the line and could overwhelm the Buffaloes' protection, but if Shedeur Sanders can evade that pressure consistently, there are throwing lanes he can exploit against a secondary allowing over 200 yards in the air.

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Oregon State at Colorado (Nov. 4)

FPI prediction: Oregon State has a 81.3 percent chance to beat Colorado

The Beavers sit in 3rd place in the Pac-12 standings this week and are favored to move to what would be a 7-1 record on the road against Arizona this weekend.

Football Power Index is taking a strong stand in Oregon State's favor here, even if its quarterback play has been up and down, but DJ Uiagalelei should find room against a Buffaloes secondary allowing over 316 passing yards on average.

Colorado's run defense is playing well, surrendering under 158 yards on the ground, while the Beavers post just under 200 on average.

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Arizona at Colorado (Nov. 11)

FPI prediction: Arizona has a 69.1 percent chance to beat Colorado

Beware the Wildcats' ability to throw the ball with quarterback Noah Fifita taking over, posting over 300 yards in the air in two games, a close loss to USC and a major upset against Washington State.

Arizona has to get through both Oregon State and UCLA before this game. Of all the Buffaloes' remaining matchups, this looks like the most winnable.

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Colorado at Washington State (Nov. 17)

FPI prediction: Washington State has a 64.6 percent chance to beat Colorado

Expect to see the pigskin fly in this one, as both these teams are anemic running with the football: Wazzu averages 86.3 yards while the Buffs gain 93 on the ground. And both are playing woeful pass defense. 

Whoever has the ball last should win this one, and the Cougars do have the home field advantage.

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Colorado at Utah (Nov. 25)

FPI prediction: Utah has an 85 percent chance to beat Colorado

The Utes play a punishing brand of defense that holds opponents to just 12.2 points per game on average, ranking 5th in college football. 

But when they have the ball? Not much happens, thanks to the injury-induced absence of quarterback Cameron Rising. Utah is 125th in passing production this season and is 112th in scoring offense.

Colorado won't be able to run on Utah's front seven, but the secondary is allowing over 211 yards in the air, and if it can force the Utes into obvious throwing situations, can tilt the game decisively in its favor.

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What's the verdict?

If you're going on the Football Power Index analytic metrics, then Colorado doesn't have a chance to make a bowl game this season. The team isn't favored in any of its five remaining games and would finish at 4-8 overall.

We're more optimistic, but not by much. Here's our ranking of Colorado's final games, from the hardest to the easiest to win:

5. Utah
4. Oregon State
3. UCLA
2. Washington State
1. Arizona

College Football HQ prediction: We'll give the Buffs a win over Arizona, but that's all we can promise. Colorado's best-case scenario this season is to go 5-7.

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