Egg Bowl 2023: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Game Prediction, Preview

What to expect as the 2023 Egg Bowl kicks off between Ole Miss and Mississippi State

One of the most intense rivals in the SEC kicks off on Thanksgiving night between two in-state schools as No. 12 ranked Ole Miss goes out on the road looking for a 10th win on the season against Mississippi State in college football's Rivalry Week action.

• Rebels are 16th nationally by scoring an average of 36.5 points per game, and 16th with 293 passing yards on average
• Ole Miss is 9-2 on the year while MSU is hoping to become bowl eligible
• Bulldogs are 1-6 in SEC play this season, and in the market for a new head coach after parting ways with Zach Arnett
• MSU is 94th in college football scoring 23.2 points per game and rank just 114th nationally in passing production
• Mississippi State has won three of the last five meetings in the Egg Bowl

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State preview, prediction

When: Thurs., Nov. 23
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Egg Bowl 2023 game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Ole Miss -10
Total: 54.5 points
Moneyline: Rebs -380 | MSU +300
FPI pick: Ole Miss 82.3% to win

What to watch for

1. Mr. Rogers. Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers returned against Southern Miss after sitting out four games with an injury and threw a pair of touchdown passes. It's no secret that as the Bulldogs pivoted away from Mike Leach's Air Raid approach, Rogers' production declined. But by getting more aggressive throwing the football, MSU can flip the script and put the Rebels' defense on its heels.

2. Turnover battle. Ole Miss has turned the football over just seven times this season, ranking fourth best among all 133 schools at the FBS level. And it's 6th nationally in turnover margin, coming in at plus-nine. Conversely, while the Bulldogs have won the turnover battle in a game just twice this year, they are 4-1 when they force just one.

3. Battle at the line. While the Rebels excel at not giving the football to the other team, they have struggled to give Jaxson Dart a lot of room to work in the pocket as the unit's pass protection has marginally regressed. Ole Miss has allowed 25 quarterback sacks this season and goes against a Bulldog pass rush that is in the top half of the SEC with 26.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction

It's difficult to see how the Bulldogs' offense will be able to build enough momentum to take, much less hold, a lead on a Rebels' defense that has played well this season. 

The matchups remain in Ole Miss' favor, and Pete Golding's unit should be able to create enough negative plays and frustrate MSU's receiving patterns to keep the game in their corner from start to finish.

College Football HQ picks...

• Ole Miss wins 31-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

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