Las Vegas Bowl 2022: Florida vs. Oregon State game prediction, preview

Making our predictions for the 2022 Las Vegas Bowl between Florida and Oregon State as the college football bowl season kicks off

One of the more interesting games of the early college football bowl season pits Florida against Oregon State as the 2022 Las Vegas Bowl kicks off.

As happens around this time of the year, the game will not see a number of prominent starters as they elect to opt out of bowl season to prepare for the NFL Draft. 

That includes Florida starting quarterback Anthony Richardson as he turns pro. Oregon State tight end Luke Musgrave won't appear in the game and Beavers cornerback Rejzohn Wright is out as he recovers from a thumb injury.

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After a statement win over a then-top 10 ranked Utah in the season opener, the Gators struggled over the course of head coach Billy Napier's debut season, losing four of their last six games and finishing at 6-6 on the year.

The Beavers fared better, winning nine games, including a huge victory over rival Oregon in the season finale, enough for the program's second-straight winning season and a new contract extension for head coach Jonathan Smith.

Here's what you need to know about this year's matchup.

Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs. Oregon State prediction, preview

Las Vegas Bowl prediction: Florida vs. Oregon State / USA Today Images

How to watch, stream

When: Sat., Dec. 17

Time: 2:30 p.m. Eastern

TV: ESPN network

Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

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Odds, point spread, betting lines

Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication

Point spread: Oregon State comes into the matchup as 8.5 point favorites against Florida, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: 53 points

Moneyline: Oregon State -376 | Florida +250

FPI prediction: Oregon State has the 57.1 percent chance to win the game outright, compared to Florida at 42.9 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.

Place your bets: Bet on Florida vs. Oregon State live at SI Sportsbook

Florida vs. Oregon State: The keys to victory

Florida wins if: It can run the ball and contain Ben Gulbranson. Jack Miller, a highly-touted transfer from Ohio State, will start at quarterback for UF, but he'll need a lot of help from the Gators' talented backfield that ran for 5.8 yards per carry and a decent protection unit that won't have guard O'Cyrus Torrence, and he could struggle against a Beaver team that is among the best against the pass.

Gulbranson is 6-1 as OSU's starter and threw for 1,290 yards with 8 TDs and 5 picks while hitting nearly 63% of his throws and has poise and accuracy that will test Florida's back seven.

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Oregon State wins if: It dominates the line of scrimmage on defense. As the Gators adopt a run-first approach to compensate for lack of experience at QB, the Beavers will need to lean on its skilled front seven alignment that ranks 20th nationally against the run, allowing 114 yards per game on the ground. 

OSU needs to apply pressure on the interior in Torrence's absence at right guard and force Florida to win the game in the air, while it establishes the run itself behind a solid enough, and balanced enough, attack that can gain an important edge on third down, a relative weakness for Florida defensively. The Beavers are a perfect 8-0 when they run for 175 yards.

Las Vegas Bowl Prediction

Not having Richardson in the game is an important loss for Florida, but it's not a killer given the hype Miller has received as a pro-style recruit and pocket passer, and the Gators are still loaded with a roster full of SEC speed and physicality.

But the Beavers look built to withstand early deficits, playing behind a cohesive offensive line that protects an accurate, if not elite, quarterback and helps pave open enough running lanes to churn out moderate gains, especially in the second half.

Florida is weak enough defending third downs and Oregon State strong enough to keep the clock running and protect a lead, but it'll be a close lead.

College Football HQ Prediction: Oregon State 27, Florida 24. Not enough for the Beavers to cover the spread (Florida +8.5) or to hit the over (Under 53).

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