Florida State vs. Clemson score prediction by college football computer model

Expert score predictions for Florida State vs. Clemson in this Week 4 college football game loaded with ACC title and playoff implications

One of the most impactful weekends of the 2023 college football schedule is here as Saturday brings us a hugely consequential ACC conference matchup between No. 4 Florida State and unranked, 2-1 Clemson in college football's Week 4 action.

Clemson dropped the opener to unranked Duke but recovered well enough against overmatched competition in two straight victories coming into Saturday, against a Seminoles team that is 3-0 and the favorite in the league title race, but coming off a close win at BC that included an injury scare for quarterback Jordan Travis and a late rally by the Eagles, escaping with a two-point margin of victory.

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly projects the matchup, along with the latest betting information for the Week 4 game.

Florida State vs. Clemson predictions

Florida State vs. Clemson picks, best bets / USA Today Images

Score prediction: Saturday could find an upset in the works, as the SP+ model simulations project that Clemson will take down Florida State by a score of 29 to 26, with a narrow 56 percent chance to win the game outright.

Point spread: Florida State comes into the game as 2.5 point favorites against Clemson, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 55.5 points, meaning the model picks Clemson +2.5, Under 55.5.

FPI prediction: Conversely, the College Football Power Index model projects Florida State has the 57.3 percent chance to win the game, compared to Clemson at 42.7 percent, after simulating the game 20,000 times to pick a straight-up winner.

Where the bets are: Most bettors are sticking with the Seminoles, as 78 percent of wagers project Florida State will win and cover the 2.5 point spread, compared with 22 percent picking Clemson at +2.5, while 67 percent of bets estimate the total will go over 55 points, and 33 percent say under.

Betting trends: FSU is 13-6 against the spread in its last 19 games... The total went over in FSU's last 6 games overall... Noles are 0-5 ATS vs. Clemson the last 5 games... FSU is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 road games... Clemson is 2-4 ATS in its last 6... Tigers are 19-1 SU in their last 20 home games... Total went over in 5 of Clemson's last 6 games against Florida State.

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Florida State vs. Clemson schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 23
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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