Florida State vs. Duke game score picks, predictions
All eyes are on a pair of injured players making hoped-for comebacks this weekend as No. 4 ranked, undefeated Florida State welcomes No. 16 Duke in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.
Riley Leonard was listed as a game-time decision by Duke as the star quarterback recovers from an ankle injury he sustained a few weeks ago, while the Seminoles should see wide receiver target Johnny Wilson return to the field fully healed.
What do the analytics project for the matchup? For that, let's turn to the famous SP+ predictive model and its expectations for the game today.
Florida State vs. Duke prediction
Florida State vs. Duke predictions
Duke Football
Score prediction
The simulations favor Florida State to defeat Duke outright on Saturday.
SP+ projects that the Seminoles will beat the Blue Devils by an estimated score of 29 to 22, a projected scoring margin of 6.9 points in the game.
The model gives Florida State a 65 percent chance to win the game outright, compared with Duke at 35 percent to upset.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it? So far, the model is 188-178-10 (51.3%) straight-up and 173-195-8 against the spread (47.1%) this season.
Point spread
Florida State is a 14.5 point favorite against Duke, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 48.5 points for the game.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...
- Duke +14.5
- FSU on the ML at -800
- Bet over 48.5 points
Computer prediction
Other analytic models also predict Florida State will beat Duke.
That includes College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick straight-up winners.
The index projects the Seminoles to win in 80.7 percent of its simulations, while the Blue Devils win out in the remaining 19.3 percent of sims.
FPI predicts Florida State will defeat Duke by 9.9 points, or by rounding up, by 10 points in the game, also not enough to cover the line.
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Duke at Florida State schedule
When: Sat., Oct. 21
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams