Florida State vs. Florida game score prediction by college football expert model

What the analytics predict for Florida State vs. Florida in this college football rivalry game

Rivalry Week is here and the 2023 college football regular season finale brings us a traditional matchup from the Sunshine State featuring one team set to play for its conference title and possibly enter playoff contention with an undefeated record, and another looking to just make a bowl game.

• Florida State comes in perfect and already having clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game against Louisville next week
• But after falling from No. 4 to No. 5 in this week's College Football Playoff rankings, it has some work to do getting back to the final four
• There's no margin for error for the Seminoles, who now have to install a new quarterback after losing star Jordan Travis to a serious leg injury
• Florida lost its last four straight games overall despite scoring over 30 points in all of them and hasn't won a game since Oct. 14
• Gators are 5-6 overall and rank 88th nationally in scoring defense, allowing opponents to score 27.9 points per game

What can we make of the matchup? Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model.

Florida State vs. Florida prediction

The simulations favor the visiting team in this rivalry game.

SP+ predicts that Florida State will defeat Florida by a projected score of 37 to 20 and expects it to win the game by a projected 16.1 points.

The model gives the Seminoles an 82 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 336-325-13 (50.8%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26 (59.4%) last week, its best performance of the season to date.

Point spread

Florida State is a 6.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 49.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for FSU at -240 and for Florida at +200.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Florida State -6.5
• FSU to win -240
• Bet over 49.5

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also favor the Seminoles to take care of the Gators.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that Florida State will win the game in 81.3 percent of its simulations, while Florida wins out in the remaining 18.7 percent of sims.

The computer predicts that Florida State will defeat Florida by 14.4 points, also enough to cover the line.

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Florida State at Florida game time

When: Sat., Nov. 25
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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