Florida vs. Tennessee picks, predictions: College football Week 3 computer picks, lines, odds

Picks and predictions for Florida vs. Tennessee in this Week 3 college football game according to a proven computer model

In the last 18 years, the Gators have come out ahead of the Volunteers 16 times in one of the SEC's oldest rivalries, which renews this weekend as Florida welcomes No. 11 Tennessee in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

But the Gators' five-game win streak in the series came to an end last season when Big Orange prevailed in a five-point win with both teams ranked in the top 25 poll. This time around, Florida sits at 1-1 with a loss at Utah and coming off a rout over McNeese State going into the SEC opener.

Tennessee is 2-0 and posting 478 yards per game behind the stewardship of quarterback Joe Milton, a 67 percent passer with seven all-purpose touchdowns, but is still waiting for backs Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small to record their first rushing scores while Dylan Sampson has carried the load so far, running for 3 touchdowns.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Florida vs. Tennessee picks, predictions

Florida vs. Tennessee picks, predictions / USA Today Images

Tennessee odds: The computer is siding with the Volunteers in a close game, projecting they have the 53.8 percent chance to win outright, according to the model that picks winners by simulating games 20,000 times.

Florida odds: Conversely, the Gators have a fighting chance according to the models, which forecast they have the 46.2 percent chance to pull off the upset against their rivals and improve to 2-1 on the year.

Point spread: Tennessee comes into the game as 5.5 point favorites against Florida, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook. (Track it live)

Total: 57.5 points

Florida predictions: The index ranks Florida as the No. 29 team nationally in the updated 133 college football rankings, projecting it will be 9.3 points better than an average opponent, estimated to win 6.0 games this season, and has a 62.9 percent shot to play in a bowl game.

Tennessee predictions: The computers rate the Volunteers as the No. 22 team in college football on the latest 133 polls, estimated to be 13.1 points better than an average opponent, estimated to win 8.3 games this season, and has a 10.4 percent chance to win the SEC East title.

Tennessee vs. Florida schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 16
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College football rankings

More: A closer look at the AP top 25

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Georgia (55)
2. Michigan (2)
3. Florida State (3)
4. Texas (2)
5. USC
6. Ohio State
7. Penn State
8. Washington
9. Notre Dame
10. Alabama
11. Tennessee
12. Utah
13. Oregon
14. LSU
15. Kansas State
16. Oregon State
17. Ole Miss
18. Colorado
19. Oklahoma
20. North Carolina
21. Duke
22. Miami
23. Washington State
24. UCLA
25. Iowa

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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