Florida vs. Missouri game pick, score prediction
Sitting in second place in the SEC East coming into this weekend, No. 9 ranked Missouri is coming off a statement win over Tennessee and heads into another home tilt against a division rival as Florida comes to Columbia in college football's Week 12 action on Saturday.
- Missouri has won the most games in a season since 2018 and is looking at possibly playing in a New Year's Six bowl game if it keeps winning
- Tigers are 7-1 in games where they score at least 30 points this season
- Florida is 3-4 in SEC play coming in and one win away from bowl eligibility
- Gators would have to beat either Missouri or Florida State to get to 6 wins
What can we make of the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model.
Florida vs. Missouri prediction
The simulation favors the home team to pick up another win on Saturday.
SP+ predicts that Missouri will defeat Florida by a projected score of 34 to 23 and will win the game by an expected 11.5 points.
The model gives Mizzou a strong 75 percent chance to win the game outright.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 298-299-13 (49.9%) in its picks against the spread after going 36-28 (56.3%) last week.
Point spread
Missouri is a 12.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 56.5 points for the game.
SI lists the moneyline odds for Missouri at -425 and for Florida at +340.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...
- Florida +12.5
- Missouri to win -425
- Bet over 56.5 points
Computer prediction
Other analytic models also favor Missouri to win the game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
The index projects that Missouri will win the game in 77.7 percent of its simulations, while Florida came out ahead in the remaining 22.3 percent of sims.
The computer predicts that Missouri will defeat Florida by 7.8 points, not enough to cover the line.
Bet on Florida vs. Missouri here
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Florida at Missouri game time
When: Sat., Nov. 18
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams