Georgia vs. Florida football game prediction, preview

Making our prediction for Georgia vs. Florida in this SEC football classic

Two old SEC rivals renew hostilities this weekend as The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party reunites No. 1 ranked, undefeated Georgia against Florida in college football's Week 9 action on Saturday.

• Gators sit 3rd in the SEC East at 5-2 overall and 3-1 in conference play
• Georgia has three straight games against ranked teams after this week
• Bulldogs without star tight end Brock Bowers after his ankle injury
• Florida has lost 5 of the last 6 against Georgia

Georgia vs. Florida preview, prediction

Georgia vs. Florida football predictions / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 28
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

Georgia vs. Florida game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Georgia -13.5
Total: 49.5 points
Moneyline: UGA -699 | UF +425
FPI pick: Georgia 85.2% to win

What to watch for

1. Replacing Brock. The loss of Georgia's top receiving target leaves a huge hole in the passing attack and helps defenses better concentrate their coverages and leaves tacklers who no longer have to provide extra help against Bowers and who can take up more space and limit passing gains. Tight end Oscar Delp is 1 of 3 receivers with more than 1 TD catch and Georgia wants to get him involved more.

2. Third down. Whichever team can gain the advantage on the money down has a major advantage in the game. Georgia comes in ranked No. 1 nationally on defense by allowing teams to convert just 23.6 percent of their chances. Conversely, the Gators are 109th in college football by converting 33.3 percent of their opportunities.

3. Protecting the QB. Florida quarterback Graham Mertz ranks No. 1 in the SEC by completing 76.2 percent of his pass attempts and he has pieces like Ricky Pearsall and Eugene Wilson to test the Bulldog secondary. 

But that efficiency only matters when the line is able to keep a clean pocket. Florida ranks 104th nationally in sack percentage and reveals a wider issue of being able to consistently ward off pressure; it allowed 27 pressures in the win over South Carolina. Georgia is just 87th with a pressure rate of 30.3 percent.

Georgia vs. Florida prediction

Georgia's front seven is still as formidable an obstacle as they come, but recent history shows that the unit has struggled to contain skilled tailbacks working to the outside of the formation, and the Gators present such a threat in their own backfield.

Churning out moderate gains on the ground can help Florida find more inviting throwing lanes on intermediate patterns behind its efficient quarterback.

And while the absence of Bowers in Georgia's passing scheme will inevitably cut into its full potential, the advantage on third down will be too much to overcome in the second half, allowing the Bulldogs to pull away and cover late.

College Football HQ picks...

• Georgia wins 27-14
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the under

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